| The water shortage crisis is a global problem.To deal with this global crisis,as a member of the community of human destiny,China should also contribute its own efforts to improve the current situation.In such a serious situation,Chinese agricultural water saving problem out in the first place.Water price reform is a key step in the new era of agricultural water-saving demand.After years of experience accumulation and model exploration,Chinese agricultural water pricing system has gradually matured,but still needs to be improved.Therefore,all parts of the country must firmly implement the state’s decision-making and deployment.Located in the northeast of China,Heilongjiang,as the largest agricultural province,has produced abundant agricultural products by virtue of its special fertile black soil,and has always maintained the leading position of agriculture in the country,playing an important role in providing food,but the water situation in Heilongjiang is not good,especially for agriculture.In response to the national policy,Heilongjiang has been conducting a series of pilot studies on comprehensive water pr ice reform in irrigation districts in recent years.Although considerable progress has been made,it still needs continuous optimization and upgrading,It is necessary to study the theory and method of agricultural water price in Heilongjiang irrigation district.Most of the current water pricing theories and methods are based on agricultural water pricing under single hydrological condition,the agricultural water price under the condition of fixed irrigation can not reflect the difference of irrigation amount,and the method of water price under the condition of dynamic hydrology is seldom considered.This paper presents a dynamic integrated water price calculation method based on rainfall forecast considering both dynamic and multi-objective aspects.Taking the 859 irrigation district in Heilongjiang as an example,the basic data of irrigation water consumption and running cost of water supply are collected,and the agricultural benchmark water price is calculated by using the improved complete cost method,these include the dynamic water price of the project and the energy theory based water price of the resource,and then the investigation of the farmers’ planting benefit in the irrigation area,also considering the change of the water price of the farmers’ carrying capacity with the annual water consumption,according to the previous research and the actual situation of irrigation district,reasonable step span and water price increase rate are set up,and with government subsidy,a four-step water price is set up,the benchmark water price and farmers’ affordable water price are included to form the final dynamic integrated water price scheme.Finally,a time series model based on wavelet analysis is established to predict rainfall,through forecasting the 2021 rainfall of irrigation area,the agricultural water price in 2021 is obtained according to the comprehensive water price scheme,and the practicability of the model is verified.The dynamic integrated water price scheme constructed by the above-mentioned method is flexible,can adapt to the influence of annual rainfall on irrigation water consumption,and can maintain the objective validity of the benchmark water price and the aff ordable water price of farmers.The dynamic water price scheme is simple to use in conjunction with rainfall forecasting model,and meets the needs of irrigation district development.It reflects the role of water price in agricultural water saving and enriches the theoretical basis of water price set ting in Heilongjiang irrigation district. |
