Research On The Dynamic Evolution And Driving Factors Of Cultivated Land Non-agriculturalization

The red line of cultivated land is an insurmountable red line in the process of economic development.The non-agriculturalization of arable land is a phenomenon that occurs with the continuous deepening of industrialization and urbanization.The reason for this phenomenon is the reasonable allocation of land resources.However,as the degree of non-agriculturalization of arable land continues to deepen,some areas are trying to balance The contradiction between human and land,as well as the expanding demand for construction land,have caused a significant reduction in the area of arable land,and even some areas have an abnormal phenomenon of relying on land finance.The reduction of arable land caused by the nonagriculturalization of arable land is irreversible and will affect Cultivated land resources cause permanent damage and,before a breakthrough in agricultural science and technology,will have an impact that cannot be ignored on the unique food security function of cultivated land.Therefore,from the perspective of arable land protection,explore the dynamic evolution of arable land non-agriculturalization and its driving factors for the rational allocation of land resources,the protection of arable land,the guarantee of food supply,and the search for a sustainable development that takes into account both economic development and arable land protection.Road is of great significance.Based on the research on the dynamic evolution and driving factors of nonagriculturalization,this paper draws the following conclusions:(1)The area of arable land is showing a downward trend,and a complete legal protection system has been formed.Using the arable land data of 31 provinces and cities across the country from 1949 to 2018,according to its fluctuations and changes,it is summarized into 4 stages of change: 1949-1957,1958-1994,1995-2008 and 2009-2018,except for the first stage of the initial development.Except for the first stage,in the other stages,the total cultivated land area in China has generally declined,and the cultivated land area in some areas has an upward trend.The reason for the decrease in the total cultivated land area has changed from the initial ecological conversion of farmland to the construction land occupation;In response to the changes in farmland protection policies,according to the stages of its development,it is divided into 4 stages: the first stage(1949-1977),the initial stage,the second stage(1978-1985),the mature stage,and the third stage(1986-2003)the rapid development stage,the fourth stage(2004-present)the perfection stage.At present,China has formed an administrative,economic,and legal closed-loop arable land protection system,which has played a significant role in suppressing the occurrence of illegal non-agriculturalization of arable land.(2)The non-agricultural scale of cultivated land showed strong fluctuation in the process of time series change,and showed unbalanced development in the spatial distribution,and had positive agglomeration effect(high-high,low-low).By analyzing the national farmland nonagricultural related data in 2001-2017,for three stages,its exists in the temporal and spatial distribution of the following characteristics: non-agricultural scale increase while decreases in the short term,long term keep rising trend,the cultivated land non-agricultural rate in the first two stages on the whole present a rising trend,trend of gradual decline in the third stage;In the distribution of spatial pattern,it is found that there is an unbalanced state among regions.Specifically,the scale of non-agriculture increased first and then decreased in the eastern,western and northeastern regions,while the scale of non-agriculture continued to increase in the central region,and the differentiation of non-agriculture rates in different regions is increasingly obvious.In addition,by calculating the cultivated land conversion rate of 31 provinces and cities using Moran index,we can see that there is a spatial agglomeration effect of cultivated land conversion in China,and the difference of the degree of cultivated land conversion among regions is gradually increasing.(3)Through qualitative theoretical analysis,an indicator system for driving factors was constructed,and a fixed-effect panel model was used.From the perspectives of governmentdriven,economic-driven,population-driven,and agricultural driving factors,empirical analysis was carried out based on relevant data from 2001 to 2017 across the country.In the indicators,there is a significant relationship between the financial proportion of land,the relative income of land,the amount of fixed asset investment,the proportion of the secondary industry,the population density,the urban per capita income,the total output value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery and non-agriculturalization,except for the negative urban per capita income.Outside the relationship,the rest are all positive relationships.(4)In order to explore the heterogeneity of non-agriculturalization of cultivated land,a panel regression was conducted in the eastern,central,western and northeastern regions.The results showed that there are significant differences between the development regions: the degree of non-agriculturalization in the eastern region influences government and economic drivers More sensitive,the process of non-agriculturalization in the central region is more sensitive to demographic driving factors,the western region is more sensitive to government driving factors and demographic driving factors,and the northeastern region is only sensitive to policy driving factors.