| With the development of the times,pure material can no longer meet the people ’ s spiritual needs.In order to achieve a balanced state between the two,the promotion of the cultural industry can not be delayed for a moment.In the cultural industry,the film industry is also very important.The location is getting more and more attention in today’s society.However,in terms of film copyright value evaluation,the country is still in the exploratory stage.At present,a scientific and complete evaluation system has not been established,and the analysis of factors affecting the box office is not comprehensive.This restricts the investment of investors in the film industry to a certain extent.Obstructed the development of the film industry.In view of this,exploring a scientific and reasonable copyright evaluation system has become an urgent problem to be solved.Based on the analysis of the development of the film industry,this article uses empirical analysis to analyze the factors that affect the box office of the movie,constructs a prediction model of movie box office revenue,and applies the revenue sharing method to copyright the film "Captain of China" evaluation.At the beginning of the article,the article introduces the background of this topic,and expounds the possible significance of the topic.Next,it sorts out domestic and foreign research results in copyright-related aspects,and then conducts copyright-related concepts and theories.Introduced and analyzed the composition of the expected income that affects the value of copyright,and determined that film box office is the main source of expected income from movies in my country,and non-box office income such as offline derivative income and network platform broadcast income only accounts for a small amount of copyright income.section.Secondly,it analyzed the applicability of several major evaluation methods in film copyright evaluation,and finally determined that the revenue sharing method is the most suitable method for evaluating film copyright.Next,the article focuses on the construction of the movie box office revenue prediction model: After analyzing the various factors that may affect the film box office,choose the schedule,main creation popularity,production level,word of mouth,screening times,hot issues,technical level,IP Or the sequel,the expected number of these nine factors as influencing factors(independent variables),and selected the relevant data of 100 movies released during2016-2019 as a sample,using stata to perform regression analysis,and then obtain the prediction of movie box office revenue model.The results show that among the nine selected explanatory variables,the movie box office has a significant positive correlation with the release schedule,production level,number of screenings and the number of people who want to watch,and the movie release schedule has the most significant impact on the box office.The article finally uses the film "Captain of China" as an example to conduct research on the application of the evaluation model,using the box office prediction model determined above to predict the box office of the movie,and on this basis,use the revenue sharing method to determine the copyright value of the film "Captain of China" Carry out an evaluation,and the inspection shows that the estimates of the box office and copyright are relatively accurate.When selecting factors that affect box office revenue,this article creatively incorporates the awards of the main creators,the expected number of people,and whether the core topic of the film is a social hot spot,into the movie box office revenue prediction model.At the same time,it also incorporates the part of the derivatives that have been ignored by the predecessors.The income is taken into account in the film copyright value evaluation model,and it has made its own attempts to improve the scientific rationality of film copyright value evaluation,in order to provide reference for film evaluators and film producers. |
