Research On The Suppression Effect Of "One Belt One Road" Initiative On Terrorist Activities In Countries Along The Route

Since entering the new era,China has conformed to the development trend of the times and put forward a major initiative in 2013 to jointly build the "Silk Road Economic Belt" and the "21st Century Maritime Silk Road".In 2020,the central government proposed to build a new development pattern of domestic and international dual cycles.The "Belt and Road" initiative is an important strategy in promoting external economic cycles.Since the "Belt and Road" initiative was put forward,cooperation and exchanges between China and the countries along the route have been continuously promoted,and a series of remarkable achievements have been made,attracting more and more countries and international organizations to participate,and ties in various fields have been deepened,the international influence continues to expand.While China and the countries along the "Belt and Road" are advancing steadily with the development of policy communication,facility connectivity,unimpeded trade,financing and people-to-people bonds,it should not be ignored that the countries along the "Belt and Road" initiative have the security situation cannot be optimistic.As an area with a high incidence of terrorist activities,raging terrorist activities have posed a huge threat to local social and economic development.The"derailment" with the world has inhibited economic development and formed a vicious circle,which has seriously hindered these countries from integrating into economic globalization,attracting foreign investment and conducting trade with other countries.This is also a serious threat to the advancement of the "Belt and Road" initiative in the region.The countries along the Belt and Road are mostly developing countries.The social environment is relatively unstable.The causes of terrorist activities are complicated.Political,economic,social,cultural and other factors may lead to the spread of terrorist activities.Despite the extremely high risk of terrorism in countries along the Belt and Road,China proposed the "Belt and Road" initiative of China is still advancing,and cooperation in various fields under the framework of the "Belt and Road" is still deepening.A series of results have been achieved,and countries along the route have obtained tangible benefits.This makes people think that the "Belt and Road" initiative is still advancing firmly under the threat of terrorist activities,and it benefits countries along the route in many ways.Does it have a certain impact on terrorist activities?This article mainly uses the method of difference in difference to study the impact of the "Belt and Road" initiative on terrorist activities in countries along the route,and discuss its influence mechanism,as well as the differences in the degree of influence of the "Belt and Road" initiative on national terrorist activities of different groups.This paper uses panel data from 215 countries and regions around the world for 21 years from 1998 to 2018 to conduct empirical research.The specific arrangements are as follows:First,the impact of the "Belt and Road" initiative on the terrorist activities of the countries along the route is regressed and test the robustness of the regression results on this basis;then conduct a mechanism analysis to explore how the influence of the "Belt and Road" initiative on terrorist activities in the countries along the route is transmitted through;subsequently,a heterogeneous analysis was carried out,and the countries were divided into groups according to the proportion of the agricultural industry in the economy and the proportion of a certain major religion in the population,to explore whether the "Belt and Road" initiative in different countries has different effects.Finally,based on the above research,corresponding policy recommendations are given.The innovation of this article is that most of the previous studies have considered terrorist activities as a national security risk factor,explored its impact on macroeconomic variables,and then analyzed its impact on the advancement of the"Belt and Road" initiative and how China should respond to ensure the successful implementation of the "Belt and Road" initiative,and this article uses terrorist activities as the research object to analyze whether the proposal of the "Belt and Road" initiative has an impact on the terrorist activities of countries along the route.This is a brand-new entry point and enriches the research literature of the "Belt and Road" initiative;At the same time,this article conducts a quantitative analysis of terrorist activities in countries along the "Belt and Road",and supplements domestic research on terrorist activities.Through the above research,the main research conclusions drawn in this article are as follows:First,the "Belt and Road" initiative does have a significant inhibitory effect on terrorist activities in countries along the route.After adding control variables,countries along the "Belt and Road" have significantly reduced terrorist activities compared to countries not along the route,the significance of this result can be tested for robustness;the second is that the suppression effect of the "Belt and Road" initiative on terrorist activities in countries along the route works through the following mechanisms:The "Belt and Road" initiative improves the quality of infrastructure in countries along the route,including transportation infrastructure and communication infrastructure,through facility connectivity,reduces transaction costs in countries along the route,and promotes optimal allocation of resources;Through people-to-people bonds,holding a series of cultural events,implementing visa-free and visa-on-arrival measures with countries along the route to promote tourism exchanges,the "Belt and Road" initiative has promoted the development of tourism in countries along the route,and inbound tourists and tourism income have increased significantly.These have promoted the economic development and social welfare of countries along the route,thereby reducing terrorist activities;third,for different types of countries,the "Belt and Road" initiative has different levels of suppression of terrorist activities.For countries where the agricultural industry accounts for a high proportion of the economy,the "Belt and Road" initiative has a significant suppression effect on terrorist activities,while countries with a low share of the agricultural industry in the economy have no significant impact;for a country with a low proportion of religious believers in the population,the "Belt and Road" initiative will reduce the level of terrorist activities,but this effect is not obvious in countries with a high proportion of believers.