Research On The Impact Of Delay Retirement On China’s Economic Growth

Our demographic dividend is disappearing,a low cost labor supply and sufficient number of other competitive advantages are also being challenged,which are not conducive to future economic sustainable and healthy development.Meanwhile,the government proposed to "keep the economy’s rapid growth,further increase the role of consumption to economic growth" in the "Thirteen Five" plan.But China’s current retirement age for men and women in the retirement system are lower,which reducing the supply of labor,sharping dependency burden,wasting human resources and other problems that have hindered the economic growth.Thus,It great significance for how the future better grasp this advantage and promoting sustainable economic growth that study the impact of delayed retirement on economic growth.This paper based on the theory of demographic dividend,life cycle and economic growth,adopts the method of combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis to discuss the impact of delayed retirement on economic growth.First of all,through combing the history of China’s retirement system and referencing foreign experience,developed three different types of delayed retirement programs.that is,delay the retire age of men and women by different cutting,or the cutting not synchronized,or simultaneous;Then,according to age-shifting algorithm and complete life table to predict different Age sex of the population 2022-2060,which as data support for analysis the impact of delay retirement for economic growth.Because the delay in retirement will change the demographic structure by influence the number of people of working age and the population of the elderly.Finally,because deferred retirement influence on economic growth through labor,consumption and savings,thus,based on panel data using the Cobb-Douglas production function model,savings and consumption function model function model analyzed the impact of delayed retirement on labor supply,consumption and savings.Simulating predict the impact of three kinds of different rates programs and existing retirement system of changes on economic growth by the empirical results.The results showed that: synchronized delay retirement scheme of Men and women brings more the number of working-age population and promote economic growth;Delay retirement compared with the current retirement system can alleviate the pressure of high savings rate,and the third scheme has better effect;Delay retirement compared with the current retirement system could maintain the stability of the consumption rate change,but consumption rate didn’t promoting on the whole.The innovation of the paper is that: designing delay retirement scheme mainly from the perspective of how men and women delay retirement,which more in line with the national conditions that the current retirement age for men and women do not consistently;From the economic point of view to provide necessity evidence for delay retirement.