Study On The Lock-in Effect Of Rural Social Pension Insurance On Rural Labor Flow

The free flow of labor force between urban and rural areas is conducive to economic development,accelerating the construction of new urbanization,so as to realize the positive interaction between urban and rural areas.However,in recent years,the phenomenon of "shortage of migrant workers" appears in some areas of the eastern part of China,and the employing units can not recruit people,thus affecting the process of new urbanization."Shortage of migrant workers" is caused by many reasons,among which the lack of social security for migrant workers is one of the reasons.Therefore,this paper studies the rural social pension insurance and finds that its non-portability and the lock-in mechanism of labor mobility can provide enlightenment for improving the social security system,promoting the flow of labor in urban and rural areas,and accelerating the process of new urbanization.This paper studies the lock-in effect of non-portability of rural social pension insurance on labor mobility.First of all,it introduces the development process and current situation of rural social pension insurance,and finds out the current problems of rural social pension insurance from the actual development;then,it introduces Todaro population flow model,introduces rural pension insurance and urban pension insurance,and analyzes the theoretical mechanism affecting labor flow;secondly,this paper uses 2016 "China Labor dynamic adjustment" Based on the data of CLDS,Probit model and MLE are used to study the lockin effect of rural social pension insurance by introducing two instrumental variables: the average insured rate of neighboring villages and counties.Meanwhile,the interaction between medical insurance and the lock-in effect of rural labor force of pension insurance is explored.This paper finds that:(1)as a whole,participating in rural social pension insurance has a significant negative impact on rural labor mobility,which reduces the migration probability by 21.48%.(2)the effect of pension insurance on the decision-making of moving to different places is different,which is manifested in that the locking effect of rural social pension insurance on the decision-making of moving between cities and counties is 10.44%,and the locking effect on the decision-making of moving across cities and counties by 11.51%.Pension insurance restricts the large-scale flow of labor force;(3)the influence of rural social pension insurance on the decision-making of moving labor force in different age stages is different On the whole,for the young and the prosperous labor force,no matter the migration distance is far or near,the locking effect of the two age groups by pension insurance is stronger,while the locking effect of the elderly is relatively the weakest;(4)on the whole,the probability of local migrant workers participating in the rural social pension insurance to work in other places to become migrant workers will be reduced by 10.21%,and the rural social pension insurance will be reduced by 10.21% To a large extent,the insurance has locked in the flow of migrant workers,that is,migrant workers who have joined the pension insurance tend to work in local areas rather than in remote areas.(5)the migration probability of rural left behind labor force has been significantly reduced by 4.74% because of participating in pension insurance alone,and 3.63% because of participating in medical insurance alone,while the comprehensive lock-in effect of participating in the above two kinds of insurance at the same time is 5.69%.Through Wald test,it can be found that for rural labor force who does not participate in pension insurance,medical insurance will still produce certain liquidity,The lock-in effect of medical insurance is almost replaced by that of pension insurance.Finally,according to the empirical results,this paper summarizes the whole paper,and puts forward policy suggestions from the aspects of pension system design,management system,legal norms,value preservation and value-added,medical insurance and pension insurance coordinated development.