Study On The Impact Of Population Aging On The Income And Expenditure Of Basic Medical Insurance Fund For Urban Workers In Tibet

At the end of the 20 th century,China has entered a new development stage of an aging society.In recent years,due to the increasingly prominent problem of population aging,and accompanied by the characteristics of aging before getting rich and the larger scale of the elderly population,the pressure on the medical insurance fund for urban employees has increased.At present,the prevalence rate of retired workers has increased significantly,the growth rate of medical expenses has also accelerated,the policy adjustment of employee medical insurance has a lag effect,the change of disease spectrum(increase of chronic diseases)and the induced demand caused by unreasonable settlement methods have led to the imbalance of income and expenditure of basic medical insurance fund for urban workers in some areas of China.In particular,the intensification of population aging makes the medical insurance fund face greater pressure.Therefore,the research on the revenue and expenditure of medical insurance fund is particularly important.Therefore,taking Tibet as the main research scope,this paper focuses on the impact of population aging on the income and expenditure of urban workers' basic medical insurance fund.Firstly,by elaborating the historical background and research meaning of scientific research,this paper comprehensively arranges the relevant academic literature research at home and abroad,and comments on the views of all parties.At the same time,it arranges the relevant concepts and theories,which lays a solid foundation for the compilation of this paper;Secondly,using the relevant population data,this paper analyzes and studies the status and causes of aging in Tibet,the changes of medical policies for urban workers,the status and problems of medical insurance fund,etc;Then,by using the statistical data collected and summarized from Tibet statistical yearbook and China Statistical Yearbook,the income and expenditure of medical insurance fund for urban employees per capita are selected as the explanatory variables,and the proportion of population over 65,population growth rate,proportion of retired employees,proportion of insured personnel,average salary of urban on-the-job employees and per capita GDP are selected as the explanatory variables,Build a regression model to get the impact of Tibet's aging population on the revenue and expenditure of medical insurance fund.Then the GM(1,1)model is used to predict the significant factors affecting the income and expenditure of the medical insurance fund for urban employees in Tibet,and then the regression model is used to calculate the income and expenditure of the medical insurance fund for urban employees from 2020 to 2029.According to the empirical results,targeted opinions and suggestions are put forward from three aspects:implementing the policy of delaying the retirement age,perfecting the comprehensive supporting reform of the medical insurance fund,and strengthening the responsibility of the government in medical insurance.Empirical results: the regression coefficients of income and expenditure of urban workers' medical insurance fund are-0.0730 and0.015 respectively.It is not difficult to see that under the condition that other influencing factors remain unchanged,the growth rate of employee medical insurance fund expenditure caused by population aging exceeds the growth rate of employee medical insurance fund income.In the long run,the aging population will lead to serious losses in the medical insurance fund for urban employees.Through the GM(1,1)model to predict the main factors affecting the income and expenditure of the medical insurance fund for urban employees in Tibet,it is found that the income and expenditure of the basic medical insurance fund for urban employees in Tibet are growing rapidly,and the growth rate of the expenditure of the medical insurance fund for urban employees is higher than the income growth rate.Therefore,this paper believes that only by starting with demographic factors can we reduce the economic expenditure pressure of urban workers' medical fund management,and contribute to the long-term stability and high-quality economic development of Tibet.