The Influence Of Population Age Structure On International Trade Balance

According to the theory of population transition,population aging is an inevitable trend of social development,an important feature of social demographic transition,and an important sign of social progress.The change in population structure has a profound impact on social and economic development,and the relationship between population aging and economic development has also become an important research topic.According to the deployment of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,my country has formulated the "National Plan for Actively Responding to Population Aging in the Medium and Long Term" and has elevated the response to population aging as a national strategy.This article focuses on the impact of population age structure on international trade,based on the theory of comparative advantage,life cycle theory and double gap theory,explores the relationship between the change in the age structure of my country’s population and the balance of international trade,and further compares the population of different regions in my country.The difference in the impact of age structure changes on the international trade balance explains the changes in my country’s international trade balance in recent years from the perspective of population aging.This article first sorts out the relevant theories and literature that affect the international trade balance,summarizes the transmission mechanism of the population age structure change to the international trade balance,and establishes the theoretical logic between the population age structure and the international trade balance.At the same time,descriptive analysis is used to explore the correlation between the age structure of the population in various regions of our country and the international trade balance,and further methods such as systematic generalized moment estimation are used to empirically test the relationship between the two.In terms of data selection,this article uses China’s provincial panel data from 2001 to 2018 to conduct research,and analyzes Chinese data to illustrate the impact of changes in my country’s population age structure on the international trade balance of various regions.The empirical test part is mainly carried out from the following aspects: First,in order to prevent the possible false regression problem,the stationarity test is first carried out to ensure the stability of the variables.Second,take the child dependency ratio and old-age dependency ratio as explanatory variables,and other variables as control variables to conduct empirical regression analysis to study the relationship between my country’s child dependency ratio,old-age dependency ratio and the international trade balance.Third,according to the level of economic development and regional differences in population,we conduct empirical regressions in different regions to test the impact of the age structure of the population in different regions on the balance of international trade.Fourth,in order to test the robustness of the empirical results and increase the reliability of the empirical results,this article mainly uses time-period regression and variable substitution to estimate the robustness.The results show that the significance and direction of the explanatory variables are basically consistent with the original regression results.It shows that the result is relatively robust.The study found that my country’s child dependency ratio and old age dependency ratio have a significant impact on the changes in the international trade balance,but there are differences in different regions.From a national perspective,the child dependency ratio is positively correlated with the international trade balance,and the old-age dependency ratio is negatively correlated with the international trade balance.From a regional point of view,compared with the lower level of economic development in the central and western regions of the developed regions of my country,the elderly dependency ratio has a more significant impact on the international trade balance,showing a negative correlation.The child dependency ratio in the central region is negatively correlated with the international trade balance,and the old-age dependency ratio is positively correlated,but not significant.The child dependency ratio in western my country has a significant positive correlation with the international trade balance,and the elderly dependency ratio has a negative correlation with the international trade balance.Based on the above research,in view of the impact of the population age structure on my country’s economic development,especially the international trade balance,several policy recommendations are put forward in line with my country’s national conditions.First,the government should formulate a reasonable regional population policy according to local conditions.Population aging is the trend of social development,but there are spatial differences in the degree of population aging,the current situation and development trend of population aging in various regions of my country.Therefore,different regions should formulate reasonable and targeted population policies based on their own conditions to promote the balance of my country’s international trade;secondly,strengthen vocational skills training and increase labor productivity.The intensification of the aging population has caused a shortage of labor supply in my country in recent years.While considering the overall plan to increase labor supply by extending retirement and liberalizing birth control,the government should also release talent dividends through talent training.Improve labor productivity and promote the transformation and upgrading of my country’s trade structure and high-quality development;finally,improve the social security system for the elderly and develop the elderly industry.The government should continue to deepen the reform of the old-age insurance system to ensure the sustainability of social security,and at the same time develop the elderly industry,enrich the content of the elderly population,and stimulate economic growth.