The Influence Of Basic Endowment Insurance On The Long-term Supply Of Labor Force

In recent years,under the influence of economic and social development,scientific and technological progress and other factors,China’s aging population is deepening,the fertility rate is decreasing,and the working-age population is declining.As an important form of income redistribution,basic endowment insurance can affect individuals’ behavior decisions of child-bearing and education expenditure by changing personal budget constraints and reducing the traditional concept of raising children for old age,and then affect the long-term of supply labor force.The supply of labor force with quality and quantity is an important foundation for innovation-driven development and high-quality economic growth.By studying the influence of the basic endowment insurance on the long-term supply of labor force,this paper puts forward feasible suggestions for improving the basic endowment insurance mechanism and achieving the supply of labor force with quality and quantity.Firstly,this paper refers to the research and theoretical basis of relevant scholars to analyze the influence mechanism of basic endowment insurance on the long-term supply of labor force.It is found that basic endowment insurance has an impact on the long-term supply of labor force by changing personal budget constraints and reducing traditional ideas.Secondly,it analyzes the current situation of basic endowment insurance and the supply of labor force,and summarizes the problems existing in the basic endowment insurance system and the long-term supply of labor force in China at the present stage.Thirdly,using the mixed cross-section data of China Household Tracing Survey in 2014,2016 and 2018,we estimate the impact of basic endowment insurance on the supply of labor force in the long run by using zero-expansion Poisson regression and propensity score matching method,and analyze the heterogeneity by household income and individual age respectively.The results show that:(1)the basic endowment insurance has a significant impact on the long-term supply of labor force.The basic endowment insurance has a crowding out effect on the long-term supply of labor force quantity and a promotion effect on the long-term supply of labor force quality.(2)Different basic endowment insurance have different influences on the long-term supply of labor force.Compared with the basic endowment insurance for urban and rural residents,the crowding out effect of the basic endowment insurance for urban workers on childbearing and the promotion effect on family education expenditure are more significant.(3)The impact of basic endowment insurance on the long-term supply of labor force varies greatly among different groups.The inhibiting effect of basic endowment insurance on the long-term supply of labor force mainly occurs in the low-income group and the middle-age group,while the promoting effect on the long-term supply of labor force mainly occurs in the high-income group and the low-age group.Finally,according to the empirical research results,the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward.They include: coordinating the coordinated development of the basic pension insurance for urban workers and the basic pension insurance for urban and rural residents,guiding parents to attach equal importance to the quantity and quality of their children,promoting investment in human capital,and realizing the sound interactive development of the basic pension insurance system and the long-term supply of labor force.