Research On The Influence Of Basic Endowment Insurance On Fertility Intention In China

At present,China’s aging population,the decline of birth rate,the continuous reduction of labor supply and the gradual disappearance of demographic dividend will affect the stable economic growth.In fact,it is China’s low birth rate that leads to low birth rate,which makes the demographic dividend disappear slowly.Therefore,it is the key to increase the fertility rate for China to successfully cross the "middle-income trap" and maintain stable and healthy economic development.However,due to the continuous decline of people’s fertility desire,the fertility rate has been reduced to the lowest level after the founding of China,which is a hidden danger for the future stable economic development.As an important childbearing motivation,old-age security will have a key impact on childbearing intention.Therefore,this paper,based on the theoretical basis of old-age insurance on childbearing intention,deeply studies the impact of old-age insurance on childbearing intention,and puts forward relevant policy suggestions on the research results.Based on the data of China Labor-force Dynamics Survey(CLDS)in 2016,this paper studies the impact of basic endowment insurance on fertility intention in China.Taking "the basic endowment insurance" as the explanatory variable and "the willingness to have two children" and "the willingness to have more children" as the explanatory variable,this paper establishes Logit model and Poisson regression model to test the influence of basic endowment insurance on the willingness to have two children and the willingness to have more children respectively,and uses the propensity score matching method and instrumental variable method to analyze the endogenous problem In addition,this paper analyzes the heterogeneity of the influence of endowment insurance in government institutions,basic endowment insurance for enterprise employees,basic endowment insurance for urban residents,new rural basic endowment insurance,and urban and rural residents’ endowment insurance on fertility intention,and introduces the concept of "more children and more happiness" as a moderating variable to analyze the new rural endowment insurance The reasons why the endowment insurance of urban and rural residents and other basic endowment insurance have different effects on fertility intention.The results show that: holding the basic endowment insurance has a significant negative impact on the willingness to have two children and the willingness to have a number of children;different types of endowment insurance have different degrees of impact on people’s willingness to have two children;the endowment insurance of government institutions,enterprise employees and urban residents have different effects on people’s willingness to have two children.The new rural basic endowment insurance system and urban and rural residents’ basic endowment insurance system have no significant impact on people’s willingness to have two children;by introducing the concept of "more children and more happiness",this paper analyzes the reason why the new rural endowment insurance system and urban and rural residents’ Endowment Insurance System have no significant effect on people’s willingness to have two children.This concept restrains the negative influence of endowment insurance on people’s willingness to have two children.On this basis,according to the results,this paper brings some policy suggestions from the aspect of old-age insurance system,such as combining the encouragement of fertility with the endowment insurance system,giving full play to the substitution effect of old-age insurance on children’s old-age security,actively promoting the improvement of rural oldage insurance mechanism,and so on;from the aspect of social security and social policy,it puts forward to grasp the multiple influence of social security on childbearing intention,and strengthen the education In order to implement the state’s comprehensive two child policy and improve the fertility desire and fertility rate,the government should provide employment security for women of different ages and give policy support to families with more children.