The Influence Of Land Endowment On The Migration Intention Of Agricultural Transfer Population From The Perspective Of Stages

China’s city city has been greatly expanded by the fact that the registered residence system has been loosened by two yuan,the labor force has been coming into the market,and the scale of labor transfer has been gradually expanded.The accumulation of more than 300 million rural population has entered the city.With the new urbanization of people centered,the government has issued a series of policy plans in succession,and has made detailed plans for deepening the household registration system reform,further opening the threshold for registered residence in cities and towns,and improving the urbanization rate of registered residence population.At present,except for the mega cities and big cities,the limit of settlement of small and mediumsized cities and towns has been basically eliminated.However,under this background,the largescale migration impact of the registered residence system reform has not been produced.Instead,there is a "paradox" that the agricultural transfer population is generally not willing to settle in cities and settle down.The high growth of city resident population and the low growth of non registered residence population become the prominent characteristics of city’s population structure in China.A large number of transferred population have not been completely integrated into urban society,and retain their registered residence in their status,and they are migrating from city to city in the region,forming a phenomenon of "semi urbanization" of non permanent migration of population.Strictly speaking,the separation of people and households or the amphibious agricultural transfer population in rural areas have not achieved the complete transfer of rural areas.On the one hand,the rural withdrawal of agricultural transfer population is not completely a social manifestation of semi urbanization.Rural land has the "pull" to the rural transfer population to return to the countryside,which hinders it from becoming a new citizen completely.On the other hand,the transfer of agricultural population fails to realize the integration of cities,mainly reflected in urban housing and social security.First,the price of urban housing is far beyond the purchasing capacity of most agricultural transfer population,and the threshold of affordable housing is high and the supply is limited.Secondly,urban public services and resources are facing the non covered permanent population.The lack of social security of housing rights and interests leads to the obstacle of urban integration of agricultural transfer population,and the lack of enthusiasm for permanent migration.Based on the increasingly prominent reality of the phenomenon of "semi urbanization" of agricultural transfer population under the background of new towns,this paper focuses on the stage and incompleteness of the non permanent migration of agricultural transfer population,and divides the migration process into two stages: behavioral migration and institutional migration.Using the micro monitoring data of the national agricultural transfer population,this paper explores the effect and mechanism of land endowment on the migration willingness of the rural transfer population in the mode of phased migration from the dual dimension of rural exit and urban integration,so as to promote the urban migration willingness of the agricultural transfer population from the Perspective of land debonding,residential integration and social security,It can promote the transformation of migration intention to migration behavior,and promote urbanization to improve quality,which provides sample basis and practical reference.The main contents of this paper are:(1)to explore the influence of rural land endowment(land property rights,land scale,land circulation and transfer income)on the willingness of agricultural transfer population migration;(2)The paper verifies the intermediary effect of urban housing form on land endowment affecting the willingness of agricultural transfer population migration;(3)The paper investigates the effect of urban social security on the land endowment affecting the willingness of agricultural transfer population to move.The conclusions are as follows:(1)Land endowment has a major inhibitory effect on the migration intention of the two stages,and participates in shaping the social form of semi urbanization..(1)The land property right has an inhibitory effect on the two-stage migration intention of the agricultural transfer population,and the land mortgage policy helps to weaken this inhibitory effect.2% and 26.7% respectively;The corresponding probability ratio of those with contracted real estate rights decreased by 12.8% and 22.5% respectively.(2)The scale of land has a promoting effect on staged willingness,but the effect is weak.The larger the scale of land owned by the agricultural transfer population,the smaller the endowment effect of land,and the more conducive to the release of agricultural transfer population to urban migration.However,the promotion effect of homestead scale and contracted land scale on behavioral migration intention is 6.5% and 3.9% respectively,and the promotion effect on institutional migration is 0.8% and 0.2%.(3)Due to the inherent cognition of "binding" between rural household registration and rural land of agricultural transfer population,in order to avoid the risk of land loss,contracted land transfer and transfer income only promote the behavioral migration intention of agricultural transfer population,but do not show a significant impact on the institutional migration intention.(4)The transfer of contracted land increases the probability ratio of behavioral migration willingness by 8.2%,and the average marginal effect is 1.2%.The existence of endogeneity makes the estimation result low,and the average marginal effect after overcoming endogeneity is 2.3%.The promotion effect of contracted land transfer income on behavioral transfer intention is weak,only 1.8%,which is related to the fact that the overall low level of land transfer rent.(2)Housing form plays a mediating role in the impact of land endowment on the phased migration intention of agricultural transfer population.(1)The ownership of rural land property rights limits the agricultural transfer population to live in urban formal housing,including the acquisition of housing property rights and the improvement of living quality.Those who own rural land property tend to choose low expenditure and temporary living forms,which leads to the obstruction of residential integration and the aggravation of residential segmentation,thus weakening their two-stage migration intention.(2)To a certain extent,the transfer of contracted land has realized the "decoupling of people and land",promoted the transition of agricultural transfer population from informal housing and employer housing to whole rental housing and self owned housing,and further promoted their behavioral migration intention.However,due to the overall low income of the contracted land transfer,the promotion effect is limited,and the low income of the transfer still makes the agricultural transfer population tend to choose the employer’s house,which is difficult to improve the living conditions and promote the residential integration.(3)Medical security and stable employment security have a moderating effect on land endowment and migration intention.With the expansion of urban medical coverage and the enhancement of occupational stability,the negative impact of contracted land property rights and homestead property rights on the behavioral and institutional migration intention of agricultural transfer population is gradually weakening.Therefore,the improvement of social security system with urban medical security and occupational income security as the main content is helpful to promote population urbanization.