Research On The Impact Of The Universal Two-child Policy On The Business Performance Of China’s Life Insurance Enterprises

Insurance industry is one of the pillars of China’s financial industry.In recent years,China’s insurance industry has developed rapidly.From 2010 to 2019,the original premium income of the insurance industry has increased by more than 150%.The future market potential is huge,and it is an important industry related to the national economy and people’s livelihood.Life insurance is an important type of insurance.In recent years,China’s life insurance industry has also made great development.In 2019,the original premium income of life insurance in China was 2962.8 billion yuan,an increase of nearly200 billion yuan compared with 2010,with an increase of up to 200%.There are many factors that affect the development of China’s life insurance industry.In addition to the level of economic development and per capita disposable income,the change of population size and population structure will also have an important impact on the development of life insurance industry.Since January 1,2016,China fully opened the two-child policy in the mainland,China once again ushered in a fertility climax.The increasing number of two-child births has played a very important role in alleviating population aging and improving population age structure,and also has an important impact on economic growth.Intuitively,the implementation of this policy is conducive to the development of China’s life insurance industry,but whether it is the main factor to promote the development of the life insurance industry remains to be further demonstrated.This paper establishes a regression discontinuity model to eliminate the impact of macroeconomic factors and individual differences of life insurance enterprises.This paper makes an exploratory quantitative analysis of the impact of the the universal two-child policy on the business performance of China’s life insurance enterprises.Based on the sample data of 42 life insurance companies in China from 2010 to 2019,this paper introduces the dummy variable of comprehensive two child policy effect,takes the difference between year and breakpoint year as the driving variable,establishes a fuzzy regression discontinuity model,and uses two-stage least square method to estimate the parameters of the model.The results show that: the comprehensive two child policy has a significant promoting effect on the business performance of China’s life insurance companies,and the results of robustness analysis using placebo test and adjusted core variable test also support this conclusion.The comprehensive two child policy can significantly promote the growth of the number of two children,and the growth of the number of two children also has a significant role in promoting the improvement of the business performance of life insurance enterprises.Every 1% increase in the number of two children will increase the business performance of life insurance enterprises by about0.055%.In addition,it also discusses the possible influence mechanism between the universal two-child policy and the business performance of life insurance enterprises.The results show that the comprehensive two child policy can indirectly improve the business performance of life insurance enterprises by increasing the child dependency ratio.This paper studies the impact of the universal two-child policy on the business performance of life insurance enterprises,and puts forward practical suggestions for the operators of life insurance enterprises,the government,the insurance regulatory authorities and consumers,which enriches the relevant research on population and economic development,and is of great significance.