Impacts Of Regional Population Age Structure On Pensions Reserve In The Context Of Aging Based On Provincial Panel Data

Ageing will be the basic national condition of China for a longer period of time to come.The report of the 20 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China states that the social security system is a safety net for people’s lives and a stabilizer for social operation.A multi-layered social security system that covers all people,co-ordinates urban and rural areas,is fair and uniform,safe and standardized and sustainable.We will improve the national co-ordination system for basic pension insurance and develop a multi-level and multi-pillar pension insurance system.This paper first makes a compilation and analysis of the history and reality of the development and change of China’s population age structure and the development and status of the basic pension insurance fund since the founding of the country.Then,based on the research perspective of the current aging background in China,the accumulated balance of social pension insurance for urban and rural residents in China is taken as the main research object,and the age structure of the total population in China is divided into juvenile dependency ratio and old-age dependency ratio,and individual fixed-effects models are used to verify the effect of the age structure of the total population on the old-age savings by using the population panel data of 31 provinces and autonomous regions from 2011 to 2019,respectively.specific impact of the level.Then,considering the variability of economic development levels among regions,the 31 provinces were divided into three groups according to the level of economic development,and the sub-sample heterogeneity analysis method was used to specifically explore in depth the direction and significance degree of the influence of regional population age structure on pension saving.After the empirical analysis and research,this paper finds that the following two points should be emphasized:(1)The significant influence of the child and teenage dependency ratio on the accumulated balance of urban and rural residents’ social pension insurance is more prominent in regions with high economic development levels,and thus the fertility policy and the national coordination policy of pension insurance should be vigorously implemented in economically developed regions in order to promote the growth of pension reserves in these regions and boost the pension reserves in less developed regions.(2)The increase in the old-age dependency ratio will bring about a "U-shaped" significant relationship between the cumulative balance of urban and rural social pension insurance,which first decreases and then increases,and this relationship is most significant in economically developed regions.In the context of increasing aging,it is recommended to match the increase in pension payments with the increase in inflation,especially in developed regions that attract a large influx of labor.