Trade Opening、human Capital And The Development Of China’s High-tech Manufacturing Industry ——Research On Threshold Effect Based On Inter-provincial Panel Data

The continuous deepening of trade opening has accelerated the flow and allocation of social resources（including products,knowledge,information,factors,etc.）among the international community,promoting the progress and development of China’s hightech manufacturing industry.Talent plays a key role in the development of high-tech industries,and trade openness promotes the development of high-tech manufacturing by enhancing the level of human capital.This paper uses inter-provincial panel data to first explore the direct impact of trade opening on the development of high-tech manufacturing industry,and further empirically analyzes the non-linear mechanism of trade opening to enhance human capital and thus affect the development of high-tech manufacturing industry based on a panel threshold model.The empirical test finds that trade liberalization significantly promotes the development of high-tech manufacturing industry.This promotion effect has significant threshold characteristics and is heterogeneous across regions and economic development levels;by region,trade opening can promote the development of hightech manufacturing industry by improving human capital in both eastern and central and western regions,and this effect shows an increasing and then decreasing trend in both regions.The trend of this effect is increasing and then decreasing in both regions.The difference is that trade liberalization has a greater effect on the development of high-tech manufacturing in the central and western regions than in the eastern region,and it is more significant than in the eastern region;by industry,trade liberalization can improve human capital and significantly promote the development of electronic and communication equipment manufacturing,but it has a significant negative effect on aerospace manufacturing,and the effect of trade liberalization on both of them shows an increasing and then decreasing trend along with the improvement of human capital.The impact of trade liberalization on both industries shows a trend of increasing and then decreasing,while there is no such non-linear impact on the other three industries.The empirical findings reveal that China should continue to expand trade opening and implement differentiated trade opening policies to improve human capital and promote the development of high technology industries in various regions and industries.