Research On The Impact Of China’s Population Structure On Housing Demand

Our country’s real estate market has always been the focus of social attention.With the increase in housing prices in the real estate market,the problem of residential housing demand has become increasingly prominent.At the same time,demographic changes,such as declining birthrates,increasing population aging,and shrinking family sizes,it is necessary to consider the impact on the housing market from a demographic perspective.Population is the main body of housing demand,and studying the impact of population structure on housing demand has far-reaching significance for implementing regional housing policies and optimizing the structure of the real estate market in the future.This article discusses the factors affecting housing demand from the perspectives of population natural structure,population social structure,and population geographical structure.This article first elaborates on the concepts of population structure and housing demand,then combs the demographic transition theory,life cycle theory,housing supply and demand theory,and domestic and foreign literature,qualitatively analyzes the impact of population structure on housing demand,and provides a sufficient theoretical basis for the following research.Then use descriptive statistical methods to analyze the changing course of my country’s population structure and housing market.Secondly,using the panel data of 31 provinces from2005 to 2019,establish a panel data model,and take into account economic and political factors,add appropriate control variables to the model,and explore the impact of the three major population structures on housing demand.Finally,China is divided into three regions: the east,the middle and the west,and the regional difference analysis of the impact of population structure on housing demand is carried out.Based on the above research,this paper obtains the following research results.From a national perspective,there is a negative relationship between the child dependency ratio,population mobility rate and housing demand,the elderly dependency ratio,family size,education level,the proportion of the secondary industry,the proportion of the tertiary industry,urbanization and housing demand A positive relationship.From a sub-regional perspective,the elderly dependency ratio,the proportion of people engaged in the secondary and tertiary industries,urbanization,and population mobility in the east have a significant impact on housing demand;the child dependency ratio,family size,education level,and the third The proportion of industrial workers and urbanization have a significant impact on housing demand;the western child dependency ratio,the elderly dependency ratio,family size,education level,the proportion of people engaged in the secondary industry,urbanization and population mobility have a significant impact on housing demand.In addition,among the control variables,from a national perspective,the area of newly-started residential buildings and housing prices are positively correlated with housing demand.From a regional perspective,the area of newly started housing in the eastern region has the greatest positive impact on housing demand;housing prices in the central and western regions have a positive impact on housing demand,and the eastern region has a negative impact.Finally,through the above conclusions,it provides reference suggestions for the government on how to macro-control the population structure,how to take measures for different regions,and how to adjust the structure of the real estate market,so as to make the housing market develop in a positive and stable direction.