Research On The Relationship Between Endowment Insurance、Medical Insurance And Fertility Level

In recent years,with the increase of fertility cost and the change of fertility concept,the situation of population fertility in China has undergone a major turning point.In 2013 and 2015,the "single two child" and "comprehensive two child" policies were successively introduced,in order to change the trend of population decline.However,according to the data after the implementation of the policy,the number of new born population in 2019 is the least since 1962,and the number of new born population is the lowest It has been declining for three consecutive years,and the declining trend of birth population has not changed.In 2014 and 2016,the urban-rural endowment insurance and urban-rural medical insurance integration policies have been issued successively,which indicates that the endowment insurance and medical insurance system has entered a stable and perfect period.The population structure under the low fertility level is constantly changing,the proportion of the elderly population is further rising,the accumulation effect of fewer children and aging appears,and the financial security of the social security system is also challenged.The relationship among fertility level,endowment insurance and medical insurance is not isolated.On the one hand,there is a contradiction between endowment insurance,medical insurance and the concept of raising children for old age,which inhibits the fertility level.On the other hand,endowment insurance and medical insurance can reduce the support pressure of children,reduce the economic pressure and improve the economic basis of fertility.The change of fertility level will affect the population structure,and then restrict the long-term stability of endowment insurance and medical insurance funds.There is also an impact relationship between endowment insurance and medical insurance.Endowment insurance provides retirement benefits for the elderly,indirectly affects the medical needs of the elderly,and has an impact on medical insurance.The improvement of medical insurance level has an impact on the average life expectancy,and may also have an impact on endowment insurance.The characteristics of fertility level,endowment insurance and medical insurance determine that they are an interrelated system.Therefore,based on social security and statistics,combined with marginal child selection theory,overlapping generations theory and social security theory,this paper establishes three groups of research variables of endowment insurance level,medical insurance level and total fertility rate,and uses var（Vector Autoregression）to analyze them The model carries on the dynamic analysis of the three,in order to explore how the pension insurance,medical insurance and fertility level have a systematic impact,and puts forward the corresponding policy suggestions from the perspective of policy coordinated development.Through the empirical analysis,we can draw six main conclusions: 1.The dynamic influence of endowment insurance level on fertility level has a trend of first negative and then positive;2.The level of medical insurance has a long-term negative influence on fertility level;3.The level of fertility has a long-term positive influence on endowment insurance level;4.The level of fertility has a long-term negative influence on medical insurance level;5.The level of endowment insurance has a long-term negative influence on medical insurance level 6.The level of medical insurance has a negative crowding out effect on the level of endowment insurance.