A Study On Income Mobility Of Families With Different Fertility Sizes In Urban And Rural China

From the family planning policy and the comprehensive two-child policy has been gradually implemented to the proposal of the three-child policy,the constant change of family fertility scale will inevitably affect the income flow of residents.Before fully implementing the two-child policy,the different fertility patterns in urban and rural areas have been formed due to the different implementation intensity,which inevitably leads to the different income flows in urban and rural areas.Based on the fertility policy and urban-rural dual perspective,this paper studies the household income flow of different fertility sizes in urban and rural areas of China.Use Chinese family followed the micro data in the database,through the gini coefficient of regression and gini rank flow index,income transfer matrix method and related index analysis the difference of income flow between urban and rural areas,between urban and rural families with different birth sizes and between families with different fertility sizes in different income groups differences in income flow;Through multiple regression models,this paper explores the influencing factors of income mobility of families with different fertility scales in urban and rural areas.Through quantitative analysis,this paper provides empirical evidence for grasping the characteristics and differences of income flow of families with different fertility scales and improving the fertility willingness of Chinese residents,and puts forward reasonable policy suggestions.The results show that :（1）In terms of the overall income mobility of urban and rural residents,the families with different fertility rules in urban and rural areas have the more children,the stronger the family income mobility,and the mobility of urban families is lower than that of rural families with the same fertility size.Urban families have two children will appear social class change pressure,rural families have three children will appear this pressure;Both urban and rural household income flows have convergence,and the convergence increases with the increase of the number of children.（2）In terms of different income groups in urban and rural areas,it is more difficult for low-income groups in urban areas to get out of poverty after having two or three children,but there is no such problem for low-income families in rural areas.The second child and third child of urban sub-low-income families has a great impact on the upward mobility of family income,while there is little difference between rural sub-low-income groups having second and third children.For middle-income families,having a second child in urban areas has a great impact,while having a third child in rural areas has a great impact.It is easy for families in urban sub-high-income groups to have a second child and a third child to flow out of this group,and it is almost impossible to have a third child move upward.Rural families face the same situation as urban families after having three children;Families in urban high-income groups who have one or two children have little influence on their social class,and it is difficult to maintain the current class when they have three children.In rural high-income groups,families that can have three children do not have this problem.（3）The influencing factors of income mobility: there is a negative correlation between the income group grade of the family base period and the possibility of upward mobility of family income in the reporting period;Education level is positively correlated with upward mobility of family income;Families with one child are more likely to have upward income mobility than families with two or three children,and there is little difference between families with two or three children.The imbalance of regional development has a significant impact on household income mobility,and the income of residents in developed areas is more likely to move upward.Education expenditure has a significant impact on the income flow of urban and rural residents.Education expenditure is positively correlated with the income flow of urban residents,and negatively correlated with the income flow of rural residents.Education expenditure is still a pressure for rural families.