Dynamic Response Analysis Of Cultivated Land Use Transition And Social And Economic Development In Henan Province

Cultivated land resources bear the heavy responsibility of national food production security,and it is also a buffer zone for most migrant workers to return to their hometowns without employment.The "reassurance" of the majority of farmers maintains social stability.However,with the socio-economic development gradually moving from the initial stage to the intermediate and advanced stages,the ever-changing development methods have gradually changed the traditional road of cultivated land use,and the shortage of urban land and the occupation of cultivated land by construction land have become prominent.On the one hand,the abandonment and fragmentation of cultivated land due to the early extensive and low economic land use behavior and the lack of long-term planning affect the actual utilization efficiency of the cultivated land;on the other hand,due to the weak implementability of the relevant policies on cultivated land,the policy The existence of problems such as inadequate support systems makes government departments incapable of managing farmland.Therefore,exploring the dynamic influence relationship between socio-economic development and the conversion of cultivated land use,analyzing the specific impact factors,and mediating the contradiction between the conversion of cultivated land and economic development are of great practical significance for finding a path for sustainable development of both.This article selects Henan province,the largest domestic food production province,as the research object.It explores from the perspectives of the spatio-temporal evolution of cultivated land use transformation,the implicit analysis of cultivated land use transformation,the two-way response of cultivated land use transformation and socio-economic development.Situation,comprehensively consider the correlation and influence relationship between different factors.Using Arcgis and ENVI remote sensing technology to interpret and classify the four remote sensing images of Henan Province in 1999,2005,2011,and 2017,so as to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution of cultivated land use transformation.Second,based on the selected hidden and explicit data of cultivated land The analysis further explores the factors that affect the conversion of cultivated land use and the interaction and correlation between the factors.Then,by constructing an indicator system,a VAR impulse response mechanism is used,and a mathematical model is used to quantify and identify the mutual impact response of social development factors and the conversion amount of cultivated land Laws;Finally,suggestions are made on the transformation of cultivated land use and social development models.Research has certain significance for the formulation of policies and management methods.The research results obtained are as follows:The study first revealed the relationship and evolution pattern of the transformation of cultivated land and other land types in Henan Province.The explicit transformation of cultivated land was mainly used for construction land and forest land,and the transformation amount showed a "U" change.In the recessive transformation of cultivated land,the correlations between the hidden indicators are relatively significant,and all indicators show an upward trend during the study period.The impulse response model shows that the impact of urban development-related indicators causes a positive response to the amount of cultivated land conversion,and the impact of agricultural-related indicators causes a positive and negative staggered response to the amount of cultivated land conversion.The internal indicators produce a milder response,but the confidence interval changes more strongly.Most indicators related to urban development show a positive response.