Dynamic Research On The Coupling And Coordination Relationship Between Population Development And Industrialization In The Four Prefectures Of Southern Xinjiang

The Four States of southern xinjiang(Kashgar,Wada,Aksu and Kizilsu Kirghiz Autonomous Prefecture)have the highest concentration of ethnic minorities in Xinjiang,and are among the 14 concentrated and contiguous areas of deep poverty in the country It is the first portal of “The Belt and Road ”Initiative and the important window of Northwest Frontier Trade.Since 2009,the development of southern Xinjiang has attracted the attention of the government and the academia.Scholars attribute the problem to religious belief,international infiltration,cultural conflict,deep poverty and insufficient employment.In fact,any social problem is the embodiment of social relations,and the population is the undertaker and executor of all social relations.The development and change of population is the basis of the change of social relations,and also the basic factor of affecting the social development and long-term stability of southern Xinjiang.In the process of population development,economic factors are the primary consideration,and industrialization is the only way of economic development.Is there some coupling relationship between population development and industrialization.Based on the analysis of regional differences,this paper tries to find out the factors that affect the harmonious development of the two,and puts forward some pertinent suggestions for the social development of southern Xinjiang.Firstly,the interaction mechanism between population development and industrialization is theoretically analyzed.On the one hand,the mechanism of population development on industrialization is analyzed from the supply loop Population Development plays a role in industrialization by affecting Labor,capital and technology,as well as the demand loop.Population Development plays a role in industrialization by affecting consumption,investment and net exports On the other hand is the mechanism of industrialization on population development.Industrialization has effect on population quantity by affecting fertility and mortality.Industrialization promotes the quality and structure of population.Then,based on the panel data of the four prefectures from 1991 to 2017,a coupled coordination degree model is constructed to measure and analyze the coordination relationship dynamically,and to compare it with the situation in Xinjiang,the whole country and the initial stage of industrialization To find out the factors that affect the harmonious development of the two.The results show:The coupled degree between population development and industrialization in the four states of southern Xinjiang is between 0.75 and 0.99The industrialization of the four states lags behind population development,and the coupled coordination degree between them gradually develops from imbalance to coordination.The coupled coordination degree of four states shows regional differences,with Aksu optimal,Kashi second,and Hetian and Kezhou being the worst.The coupled coordination level of the four states is lower than that of Xinjiang and the whole country,the gap was small in 1991-1999 and gradually widened from 2000 to 2017.1n addition,giving play to the government's leading role,promoting balanced population development,accelerating industrial transformation and upgrading,and creating a tolerant social atmosphere will contribute to the coordinated development.