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Effect Of Population Aging And Endowment Insurance On Household Savings Rate

Posted on:2018-09-01Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:T LiuFull Text:PDF
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Saving is not only closely related to the living standards of the residents,but also related to the future development of China's economy.So the study of household saving is of great significance.For the household saving rate,the acceleration of population aging process and the development of China's endowment insurance should be one of the reasons that affect it,but what is the relationship between them and the household saving rate,which is us to study.Firstly,This paper reviews the literature on the population aging affecting savings and endowment insurance affecting savings.On this basis,it also introduces the classical theory on it affecting savings.Secondly the paper elaborates the current situation of population aging in our country,the reform stage of endowment insurance and the changing trend of household saving.And then when we carry on empirical analysis,we construct the OLG model considering the background of population aging.On this basis,we also construct the OLG model which includes the social insurance system combined pay-as-you-go pension system with the fund pension insurance in our country.And by catching 2001 to 2014 provincial panel data conducting empirical comparison,we depend on the data to analyze the three core variables containing elderly dependency ratio,life expectancy and endowment insurance rate on the impact of changes in household savings rate.By contrast,in the forecast of the future household savings rate,we have carried out some expansion of the previous three generations overlapping models,taking into account the situation of our traditional culture "filial piety culture".That is to say,adding to the family security in the model.Through the numerical simulation,we analyzes the impact of family security and social security on household savings rate in the context of population aging and the influences and changes of various factors on the future savings rate of under thecomprehensive implementation of the two-child policy in our country.Finally,we give the relevant population policy and improving the endowment insurance system policy recommendations to enable China to reduce the savings rate in the future.Accordingly,expand domestic demand,promote consumption and better stimulate economic growth.The paper analyze the impact of the population aging and endowment insurance on household savings from empirical research and numerical simulation respectively.Empirical research gets the following conclusion:when there is no account of endowment insurance factors,elderly dependency ratio has an inhibition effect on savings rate.And life expectancy has a promote effect on savings rate.If combined with China's endowment insurance system,their impact on the savings rate will not change,but the effect will be weakened.Meanwhile the influence of the endowment insurance to savings rate is negative in this case.According to numerical simulation,we can get the following conclusions:in accordance with our current situation,life expectancy,household support expenditure ratio,fertility rate,tax rate of social pool and tax rate of personal account to savings rate is negative.On the contact,personal account misappropriation to savings rate is positive.In addition,it is also concluded that when guaranteed savings rate not changing,the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy not only reduce the pressure from their children to support their parents,but also it can also effectively alleviate the burden of endowment insurance.
Keywords/Search Tags:Population aging, Endowment insurance, Savings, Over Lapping Generations Model
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