The Impact Of Global Value Chain Status And Biased Technological Progress On Labor Employment

In recent years,the outbreak of COVID-19 and the prevalence of national trade protectionism make the international market environment increasingly complex,which has a huge impact on China's economic development and employment pattern.In addition,the employment problem has always been the biggest livelihood problem in China.How to alleviate or even solve the "difficult employment" situation is an important part of China's sustained and high-quality economic development.In this paper,the status of global value chain,biased technological progress and employment of labor force are included in the same framework for analysis and research,in order to alleviate the pressure of employment in China and put forward enlightening policy suggestions to get rid of the "low-end lock-in".This paper first analyzes the current situation of global value chain,biased technological progress and labor employment,and finds that from 2000 to 2014,the status index of China's manufacturing global value chain maintained a stable state of about 0.95,and fluctuated in a right "V" shape,and the way of participating in global value chain is gradually changing from backward to forward.Secondly,by studying the mechanism of GVC status and biased technological progress on employment,we find that,on the one hand,GVC status will directly promote labor employment through transfer effect,scale effect and industrial upgrading effect;On the other hand,biased technological progress will play a mediating role in the process of global value chain status affecting employment.Finally,the empirical test shows that:(1)the GVC status has a positive impact on the total employment scale of labor force,the employment scale of skilled and unskilled labor force,and the improvement of the GVC status can optimize the employment structure.(2)The deepening of forward participation in GVC can increase the total employment scale of labor force and the employment scale of unskilled labor force;Backward participation of GVC has a negative impact on the total employment scale of labor force and the employment scale of skilled and unskilled labor force.The improvement of forward and backward participation of GVC is not conducive to the optimization of employment structure.(3)For high-tech manufacturing industry,the GVC status has no significant impact on the total employment scale of labor force,skilled labor force and unskilled labor force;The deepening of forward participation in GVC has a negative impact on the total employment scale of labor force and the employment scale of unskilled labor force,which is conducive to the optimization of employment structure;Backward participation of GVC has a negative impact on the total employment scale of labor force and the employment scale of skilled and unskilled labor force,which is not conducive to the optimization of employment structure.(4)For medium and low-tech manufacturing industry,the GVC status has a positive impact on the total employment scale of labor force and the employment scale of skilled and unskilled labor force.The improvement of the status of GVC can optimize the employment structure.The deepening of forward participation in GVC can increase the total employment scale of labor force and the employment scale of unskilled labor force,but it is not conducive to the optimization of employment structure.The deepening of backward participation in GVC has a negative impact on the total employment scale of labor force and the employment scale of unskilled labor force,which can "optimize the employment structure".(5)Technological progress bias plays a mediating role in the process of GVC status affecting employment scale.Biased technological progress is an important channel of GVC status affecting employment scale.Based on the conclusions of this study,the paper puts forward policy suggestions:the government should continue to promote the adjustment and upgrading of manufacturing industry,improve the status of manufacturing industry in the GVC,promote manufacturing industry to participate in a higher level of value chain division;encourage local governments to expand the scale of high-tech manufacturing industry based on their own advantages,build a high-tech manufacturing industry cluster with global influence and competitiveness;and we should constantly improve labor efficiency,improve the quality and skill level of enterprises,establish human capital structure suitable for the industrial development,implement the innovation driven development strategy,and improve the independent innovation ability of enterprises.