Research On Demand Prediction And Distribution Of Emergency Materials Under Large Flood Disasters

In recent years,many large-scale floods have occurred in my country,causing huge losses to people’s production and life and social and economic stability.The sudden occurrence of flood disasters often requires a large number of urgent emergency supplies,as well as fast and accurate distribution capabilities.In order to control the spread of disasters and reduce the losses caused by disasters.With the increasing development of society,my country’s emergency rescue capabilities after disasters are constantly improving,and emergency material forecasting and distribution provide important guarantees for emergency rescue work.In order to make the distribution of emergency materials under flood disasters more scientific and reasonable,the rescue efficiency is continuously improved,and the material needs of people in disaster areas can be met to the greatest extent.The main research contents of this paper are as follows:(1)Basic theory of emergency supplies.This paper firstly sorts out the research status at home and abroad in several aspects such as emergency material demand forecasting and emergency material distribution,and then summarizes the theoretical basis of emergency materials under flood disasters.A theoretical foundation was laid.(2)Prediction of emergency supplies under flood disasters.The indirect forecast method is used to estimate the quantity of emergency supplies by forecasting the population.Firstly,the influencing factors of flood disasters on the affected population were analyzed,and then seven parameters such as the maximum rainfall and the number of collapsed houses were selected as the prediction indicators of the affected population,and the number of transferred people was predicted by BP neural network.Establish a relationship model between the number of people and materials,and indirectly estimate the demand for emergency materials by the affected population.At the same time,the analytic hierarchy process is used to analyze the factors affecting the urgency of emergency materials demand for flood disasters,which provides a basis for subsequent research on the distribution of emergency materials.(3)Distribution of emergency supplies under flood disasters.By analyzing the factors affecting the distribution of materials,considering the minimum transportation time turnover of the distribution center and the maximum demand satisfaction rate of the disaster-stricken points as the goals,based on the reasonable prediction of the emergency materials in the previous article,combined with the different material needs of each disaster-stricken point,A large-scale flood disaster emergency material distribution model with multiple distribution centers,multiple disaster-affected points and multiple materials is constructed,and finally the model is solved by genetic algorithm.(4)Case analysis.Design a case of multiple distribution centers and multiple disaster-affected points under flood disaster.First,predict the amount of materials needed for emergency,and then bring it into the model according to the predicted value,the weight value of each disaster-affected demand factor,and the example data,and use MATLAB to write a genetic algorithm to carry out the model.The solution is solved,and the validity and feasibility of the distribution model under flood disaster are verified by an example.There are 25 figures,37 tables and 65 references.