Research On Risk Prediction And Avoidance Methods For Aircraft Field Taxiing Conflicts

With the booming civil aviation industry,the number of aircraft operating on the airport surface is increasing and the airport structure is becoming more complex,the risk of taxiing conflicts on the airport surface is increasing,seriously threatening the safety and efficiency of aircraft.At present,taxiing conflict risk prediction models and conflict avoidance methods do not take into account the differences between aircraft,and set different aircraft as a uniform idealized model,which is contrary to the actual application environment of the model,making the original taxiing conflict risk prediction and taxiing conflict avoidance methods less and less suitable for the current situation of airport operation.Therefore,in this paper,based on the current situation of airport operations and aircraft taxiing characteristics,we conduct a study on aircraft taxiing conflict and conflict avoidance,and propose corresponding risk prediction models and conflict avoidance methods.The main research work of this paper is as follows:(1)Introduction of airport field taxiway system,taxiway operation rules and other airport field taxiing related basic knowledge;for aircraft taxiing conflicts,analysis and research of the causes of aircraft field taxiing conflicts,and taxiing conflict classification,as well as detailed analysis of aircraft field taxiing conflict impact factors.(2)In order to achieve aircraft taxiing conflict risk prediction,an aircraft taxiing conflict risk prediction method is proposed,which firstly establishes an aircraft taxiing spatio-temporal dynamics model through aircraft taxiing motion characteristics and digitizes the aircraft taxiing process.Then for the aircraft taxiing conflict identification problem,a taxiing conflict determination method based on the spectral radius theory and a taxiing conflict type identification algorithm considering the characteristics of aircraft taxiing dynamics are proposed for aircraft taxiing conflict identification and taxiing conflict type identification.Finally,an aircraft taxiing conflict risk quantification model is established using prism space theory to quantify the risk of aircraft taxiing conflict.(3)In order to achieve aircraft taxiing conflict avoidance,three taxiing conflict avoidance strategies,namely stop-wait taxiing conflict avoidance,departure taxiing conflict avoidance and deceleration taxiing conflict avoidance,are proposed,and fuel consumption models are established for each of the three conflict avoidance strategies to analyse the fuel consumption of the different avoidance strategies.Focusing on the avoidance effect in the deceleration taxi conflict avoidance strategy,a deceleration conflict avoidance model with mutual feedbacks of taxi conflict risk and taxi speed and a dynamic intervention interval model are proposed to realise the deceleration conflict avoidance strategy to carry out conflict avoidance before the accelerated growth of aircraft taxi conflict risk and complete aircraft conflict avoidance before the growth rate reaches the maximum.(4)The simulation results show that the Gaussian process-based prismatic space taxiing conflict risk prediction model can effectively predict aircraft taxiing conflict risk;compared with the stop-and-wait taxiing conflict avoidance strategy and the departure taxiing conflict avoidance strategy,the deceleration conflict avoidance strategy based on taxiing conflict risk feedbacks can reduce taxiing conflict risk and ensure aircraft taxiing safety on the basis of reducing taxiing At the same time,the deceleration conflict avoidance strategy saves 4.8kg and 7.1kg of taxiing fuel per conflict avoidance compared to the stop-wait conflict avoidance strategy and the departure conflict avoidance strategy.This paper explores the aircraft field taxiing conflict risk prediction and conflict avoidance strategy,constructs an aircraft field taxiing conflict spatio-temporal dynamics model,proposes an aircraft taxiing conflict risk prediction method,forms a dynamic intervention interval conflict risk and taxiing speed reciprocal feedback deceleration conflict avoidance strategy based on aircraft field taxiing conflict risk,and uses Guilin airport data and simulation experiments The results show that the conflict risk in the dynamic intervention zone is not only the same as the conflict risk in the taxiing speed feed.The results show that the conflict avoidance strategy based on the conflict risk between the dynamic intervention zone and the taxiing speed feeder can effectively reduce the risk of aircraft taxiing conflicts and improve the operational efficiency of the airport,which is important to ensure the safety of flight operations,improve the operational efficiency of the airport and reduce the cost of flight operations.