Study On Risk Identification And Assessment Of The Whole Life Cycle Supply Chain Of Assembled Construction Projects

In 2015,the Ministry of Housing and Construction issued the "Outline for the Development of Modernization of Construction Industry",which clearly pointed out that by 2025,the proportion of assembled buildings should reach more than 50%,and assembled buildings,as a new development direction for the transformation of the construction industry,are deeply in line with the needs of national sustainable development and respond positively to the requirements of China’s "carbon neutral" goals,and have become the focus of extensive attention from the theoretical and business circles.It has become the focus of extensive attention from the theoretical and business circles.However,so far,the development of China’s assembled buildings is still in the initial stage,and the development is relatively slow,fully revealing the problems of "low recognition by developers,non-standardized design standards,and lack of systematic planning".The reason for this is that "the supply chain of assembled building projects is too long,there are many participating parties,and the risks faced at each stage of the project are complex and variable".Therefore,a comprehensive identification and scientific assessment of risks in the supply chain of assembled construction projects from the perspective of the whole life cycle and the corresponding countermeasures are meaningful to promote the healthy and sustainable development of the assembled construction industry.The research of this paper mainly includes the following aspects: firstly,to explain the concept of the whole life cycle supply chain of assembly construction projects,analyze the current situation and risk issues in each stage of the supply chain of assembly construction projects,and lay the foundation for accurately identifying various risks in the whole life cycle supply chain of assembly construction projects;secondly,to use the text mining method to extract key words of risk indicators,combine project process management and stakeholder theory,and determine the risk indicators with reference to expert opinions.Then,we use COWA operator method and DEMATEL method to calculate the index weights of questionnaire results,and establish the risk index causality diagram and risk identification feedback model with the help of system dynamics theory;then,we introduce the actual engineering project,simulate the risk assessment of the whole life-cycle supply chain of assembly construction project,and conduct variability analysis;finally The study proposes risk management countermeasures.Through the above research,the following conclusions are drawn:(1)the risk assessment index system of the whole-life cycle supply chain of assembly construction projects,which is combined with the whole-life cycle,project process management and stakeholder theory,contains 6 stage level indicators and56 specific indicators(9 whole-life cycle indicators and 47 corresponding indicators of each stage),basically covering the possible risk problems faced in the operation of the supply chain of assembly construction projects(2)Using the COWA operator method and DEMATEL method,we establish the importance of each stage level index in the following order: HC in the lifting and construction stage>PP in the production and procurement stage>ED in the engineering design stage>PD in the project decision stage>OR in the operation and maintenance recovery stage>WT in the storage and transportation stage;(3)Summarizing the results of the actual case analysis,it is found that the proposed risk assessment model of the whole life cycle supply chain of the assembly building project has certain validity and operability,and the supply chain risk of the assembly building project increases as the project proceeds over time,and the risk accumulates to the maximum at the operation and maintenance recovery stage;in addition,through the analysis of the variability of the system constants,it is also found that the project decision risk subsystem The variability analysis of the system constants also reveals that the project decision risk subsystem has a large rate of change and the storage and transportation risk subsystem has a small rate of change.