Life Cycle Cost Risk Assessment Of Prefabricated Buildings

Prefabricated building refers to the building that all or part of the beam,slab and column components of the building are pre processed and produced in the factory,and then transported to the construction site for assembly by means of transportation,and built through industrial production and professional splicing and connection.Although the advantages of prefabricated building are obvious,the high cost of prefabricated building restricts its large-scale development.Only by controlling the cost risk in the whole life cycle of prefabricated building,can we enhance the willingness of construction enterprises to develop prefabricated building and promote the long-term development of prefabricated building industry.Based on the prefabricated building theory,life cycle cost theory and risk management theory,this paper identifies the cost risk of the whole life cycle of prefabricated building from the perspective of cost risk evaluation and control,and constructs five first level and 35 second level evaluation indexes of the whole life cycle cost risk of prefabricated building.Using AHP and expert scoring method to obtain the evaluation value of each index,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is applied to the risk evaluation of the whole life cycle cost of prefabricated building,and the risk evaluation model and evaluation system of the whole life cycle cost of prefabricated building are established.Finally,taking the phoenix city project of B company as an example,this paper evaluates the life cycle cost risk of the prefabricated construction project,analyzes the risks and problems existing in the cost control of the project in each stage,and puts forward reasonable and effective risk control measures.Through the research,it is found that the importance of the life cycle cost risk of assembly building is from large to small,which is the cost risk in design stage,cost risk in construction stage,cost risk in decision stage,cost risk in operation and maintenance stage and cost risk in demolition and recovery stage.The overall cost risk assessment score of Phoenix Project of company B is 73.25,which is a low risk.It is suggested to define the target orientation of green star,be familiar with the assembly building review process,improve the acceptance of the assembly building,improve the green design experience,improve the quality of design scheme,master the key points of assembly building certification,and transfer the risk of fluctuation of supply price of assembly building materials The risks of strengthening the green construction management on site,strengthening the quality management of construction supervision,improving the maintenance level of assembly building,improving the management experience of the assembly building of the property management company,and transferring the operation performance of the assembly building do not meet the expected requirements.Through the above research,the whole life cycle cost risk management system of prefabricated construction project is improved,which provides the basis for real estate enterprises to formulate cost risk control measures,and further promotes the development of prefabricated construction.