Future Energy Consumption Scenarios And Intensity Prediction Of Urban Residential Buildings In Severe Cold Areas

From the Central Economic Conference in 2020,the work of doing well in "carbon peaking and carbon neutralization" was proposed to be the key task after 2020.The construction sector has been one of the three major energy consuming industries,in which its energy conservation and emission reduction embody great significance in achieving the dual carbon strategy for our country.Reaching 201 million tons of standard coal,the energy consumption of residential buildings in the north accounts for 20% of the energy consumption of China’s construction sector.In contrast with other regions,the large residential energy conservation potential in severe cold regions is shown.Therefore,the guidance role can be provided by the the research on the future energy use scenarios and energy intensity indicators of urban residential buildings in severe cold regions in achieving the control of residential energy consumption in the construction industry in terms of the dual carbon target in the construction field.On the basis of the large-scale questionnaire data,the energy use features of cooking,domestic hot water,air conditioning,household appliances,lighting and so on,as well as the actual energy use modes of residential air conditioning operation,window opening and shading are analyzed.In line with the cluster analysis,the summary of different energy use scenarios is conducted,and the urban residential energy consumption in severe cold areas under different energy use scenarios is simulated,so the analysis on the current energy use demand situation and energy saving potential of residential buildings in severe cold areas can be carried out.Secondly,the performance features of energy use equipment,the features of residents’ energy use behavior and the survey results of basic housing conditions are used to refine the typical residential building models in severe cold regions.by conducting the research on the integrated solar energy design method and capacity analysis of typical residential buildings in severe cold areas,it obtains the heat production of solar water heating system and annual power generation of solar photovoltaic system in various parts of typical residential buildings under different installation modes,which also explores the technical path of the integrated solar energy design of residential buildings with near zero energy consumption in severe cold areas.By taking the actual energy use modes of residential air conditioning operation,window opening,shading and so on in severe cold areas into account,the analysis on the relationship among the air tightness,fresh air heat recovery form,fresh air heat recovery efficiency and the energy use of heating,cooling and fresh air in near zero energy consumption residential buildings under the actual energy use mode is conducted through stimulation.Finally,the six aspects are considered to set up the future energy use scenarios of residential buildings in severe cold areas,including the indoor thermal comfort performance parameters,building envelope performance parameters,air tightness and fresh air heat recovery efficiency,power of energy use equipment,changes in indoor personnel behavior patterns,and renewable energy.In accordance with the setting of future energy use scenarios and typical building models,the future energy use intensity of urban residential buildings in severe cold regions is predicted(2025,2030,2035,2040,2045,2050,2055 and 2060).In accordance with the research results of this thesis,the theoretical and technical support can be provided for the prediction of future residential building energy use intensity in severe cold regions and the realization of the dual carbon target in the construction field of our country.