| Since the beginning of the 21st century,more and more countries and cities have introduced the concept of resilience into urban development,and building resilient cities has become a global consensus.Nowadays,county seat is the important carrier of promoting urbanization construction and the key support of urban and rural integrated development.In this context,it is of great significance to objectively evaluate the resilience development level of county towns and put forward suggestions to promote the resilience development of county towns.In this thesis,the county of Shandong Province is taken as the research object.Firstly,the index system of urban resilience evaluation is constructed from five dimensions,including economy,society,ecology,infrastructure and spatial layout.Entropy-topsis method is used to evaluate the development level of county resilience in two time sections in 2015 and 2020,and the contribution of indicators at each level to the overall county resilience is analyzed.Secondly,statistical methods,natural fracture method,Arc GIS spatial visualization and other methods were used to analyze the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of county toughness,and the coupling coordination degree model was used to identify the coordination degree of the five subsystems.Finally,the obstacle factors of county resilience development level were analyzed with the help of obstacle degree model,and the strategies for improving county resilience development level in Shandong Province were proposed.The main research conclusions are as follows:(1)Generally speaking,the county resilience development level in Shandong Province was not high during the study period,and the number and distribution of counties at low and medium levels were large.Among the five subsystems,the level of ecological resilience is the highest,while the level of economic resilience and basic resilience is low.(2)From the perspective of time change,the overall resilience of county towns in Shandong Province showed a slow rising trend during the study period.Among the five subsystems,economic resilience,ecological resilience and spatial resilience are on the rise(economic resilience is growing fast),while social resilience and infrastructure resilience are on the decline.(3)From the perspective of spatial distribution,the overall toughness of counties in Shandong Province during the study period was uneven,showing a distribution pattern of "high in the northeast,low in the southeast and southwest".The overall toughness of county counties has an obvious spatial agglomeration phenomenon,that is,counties with high overall toughness level are adjacent to other counties with high overall toughness level,while counties with low overall toughness level tend to be adjacent to each other.(4)From the point of view of subsystem coupling coordination degree,the county resilience subsystem was mainly composed of reluctant coordination and primary coordination during the study period,accounting for nearly 90%.In general,the coupling coordination degree needs to be further improved.(5)From the perspective of the degree of obstacles to the overall county resilience,in terms of the subsystem level,the degree of obstacles to economic resilience and social resilience is larger;In terms of the index layer,the per capita gross regional product,the proportion of the population with higher education,the financial self-sufficiency rate,the density of water supply and drainage pipes in the county,the number of leading industries and the per capita road area of the county appear more frequently in the top five of the obstacle degree among the 52 counties.Based on the research conclusion on the resilience development level of county towns in Shandong Province,strategies to improve the resilience development level in the new development stage are proposed for the counties with weak links in each resilience subsystem,which can provide reference for the county to make development decisions. |
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