Research On Risk Management Of District Heating Pipeline Construction

The National Development and Reform Commission proposed in the 14 th Five-Year Circular Economy Development Plan that by 2025,circular production mode will be fully implemented,and district heating pipe network and clean production will be widely promoted.In the next few years,the number of district heating pipe network construction projects will increase rapidly.Under the interlacing effect of internal and external environment,the heating pipe network construction project faces increasing risks,so it is particularly important and urgent to do a good job in risk management.Based on this,risk management research has a large development space in the construction of central heating pipe network engineering,and is also the practical significance of the topic of this paper.Based on the current situation of the central heating pipe network construction project in our country,this paper,based on the theory of risk management,focuses on the whole life cycle of the heating pipe network construction project,and makes risk study from the three aspects of risk identification,assessment and dealing with by using qualitative and quantitative methods.The specific contents include: First,the hierarchical holographic modeling method is introduced to establish a multi-level and multi-dimensional mathematical model for the project risk identification of the central heating pipe network.Through the analysis and filtering of the three stages,the risk identification model of the heating pipe network construction project is finally formed,including 4 risk dimensions,12 risk factors and 33 risk events.Secondly,the weights and levels of 4 first-level risks and 12 second-level risks in the heat supply pipe network construction project risk system were evaluated by AHP,fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,expert evaluation method,etc.,so as to determine the influence of risk indexes at all levels on the total risk of the project,and construct the multi-layer fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of the pipe network project.Then,in order to conduct more targeted risk avoidance and prevention,the risk events under the high-risk dimension are further evaluated and graded.Finally,according to the risk assessment results of heating pipe network construction,it can be seen that class I and Class II belong to the category of acceptable and acceptable risks,which can be solved by means of risk retention,risk transfer and risk mitigation.Therefore,the risk response mainly analyzes 21 level Ⅲ or above risk events,and puts forward countermeasures with practical guiding value.Through the study on the risk management of the whole process from establishment to formal operation of the district heating pipe network construction project,this paper is beneficial to comprehensively understand the risks faced by the heating pipe network from multiple angles,which can reduce the risk occurrence probability and risk loss to a certain extent,and provide reference and reference for the risk study of the construction project of the district heating pipe network.