Research On Cost Risk Control Of Highway Construction Projects In Fujian Provinc

The characteristics of large investment,large volume,long cycle and diverse risks of expressway construction projects lead to difficulties in risk management and control,so that the phenomenon of overestimation of construction project costs often occurs.Because the whole process of construction project has many risks and influences each other,the cost risk control of highway construction project should be the whole process and systematic management.If the owner studies the feasibility of the project in the early stage of the project,the budget deviation will have a series of effects in the construction stage of the subsequent design stage,which will increase the cost and greatly increase the possibility of cost overrun.Cost risk management and control is a work from the beginning of the project to the completion of the project.Based on the risk management and control theory and the whole process cost management and control theory,this paper studies the cost risk of expressway construction project,constructs the cost risk model of expressway construction project,and studies the sensitivity of risk factors through sensitivity analysis.And accordingly put forward control measures.This paper first establishes the cost risk index of expressway construction project,uses the literature induction method and expert interview to obtain the initial cost risk list,and identifies it from the perspective of the whole process.According to the characteristics of risk stage,the risk is divided into project stage risk,design stage risk,bidding stage risk,demolition stage risk,construction stage risk,completion stage risk and external environment risk.Then,the questionnaire was distributed to experts,and SPSS26.0 software was used to analyze the reliability and validity of the questionnaire.After that,The Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)was used to calculate the initial weight of risk factors.After the initial weight was corrected by entropy weight method,the comprehensive weight was obtained.According to the size of the comprehensive weight and the impact on other risk factors,the risk factors with small comprehensive weight and non-representative risk factors in each stage were deleted,and 42 risk factors were reduced to 32 to obtain the final risk list.Through the theory of system dynamics,Vensim software is used for modeling.Firstly,the risk causality is analyzed,and the risk causality diagram of each stage is established.Then,the overall model diagram is obtained after considering the mutual influence of risk factors between each stage.Then,the weight results of AHPentropy weight method are used to establish the equation between the models,and finally the cost risk simulation results of expressway construction projects are obtained.Through sensitivity analysis,the sensitivity of each risk factor is obtained.Finally,based on the results of risk simulation and sensitivity analysis,control measures are proposed for each stage of highway construction project from the perspective of the whole process.