Study On Formation Mechanism Of Operation Risk Of Water Conservancy Infrastructure PPP Project

In order to develop water conservancy infrastructure construction,since the Ministry of water resources vigorously promoted the PPP model in 2014,a large number of Water Conservancy Infrastructure PPP projects have been put into operation,but the operation risk problem is more prominent.The healthy operation of the project is directly related to the exertion of project benefits and the long-term development of PPP mode.In order to explore the operational risk sources of completed projects and reduce the operational risk of projects under construction,this thesis will study the formation mechanism of operational risk by analyzing the main risk factors in the whole life cycle of Water Conservancy Infrastructure PPP projects.Firstly,this thesis uses the literature analysis method to identify the risk factors and form a preliminary list of operational risks,and then invites experts and scholars to conduct three rounds of questionnaire survey to determine the list of project risk factors and clarify the relationship between various risk factors;Then,based on the interpretative structure model method,the reachability matrix is calculated,the risk factors are analyzed,and the ISM model is constructed;Finally,the risk classification of the model is carried out to determine the risk transmission process and formation mechanism.Combined with the risk list and ISM model obtained in this thesis,select the engineering cases with operation problems,find out the risk factors and formation mechanism affecting the operation,and effectively control the generation of operation risk.The results show that six risks such as design quality and inflation are the root risk factors,seven risks such as overspending of construction cost and poor communication in cooperation are the transition risk factors,and five risks such as too high operating expenses belong to the aggregation risk.In the risk transmission system,the operation risk of Water Conservancy Infrastructure PPP project is directly affected by the cluster risk,while the transition risk is caused by the root risk,and the root risk can directly lead to the formation of cluster risk.The research results of this thesis can reduce the generation of operation risk and is conducive to the long-term development of PPP model in the field of water conservancy.