Research On The Correlation Model Between Distributed Energy Development And Distribution Network Investment Benefit

In the context of "dual carbon",the construction of a new type of power system with new energy as the main body has led to a gradual shift in the power supply structure from deterministic.controllable,and continuously outputting thermal power installations to uncertain,weakly controllable,and randomly fluctuating renewable energy installations,and a gradual shift in the power supply layout from large unit,large capacity,centralized development to small unit,small-scale,and decentralized development,The access of largescale distributed renewable energy and energy storage has transformed the distribution network from passive to active.In order to meet the needs of building new power systems,during the "14th Five Year Plan" period,investment in distribution networks will gradually become the focus of power grid investment.As the power grid enters a new stage where more emphasis is placed on development quality and efficiency,combined with the experience of countries with advanced renewable energy development levels,when the penetration rate of renewable energy reaches a certain level,distributed renewable energy will have a significant impact on investment in distribution networks.Therefore,the research on the correlation model between the development of distributed energy and the investment benefits of distribution networks is of great significance for the construction of new power systems and the high-quality development of distribution networks.This paper takes the investment benefits of distribution networks as the research object,establishes a correlation model between distributed energy development and investment benefits of distribution networks using system dynamics,and proposes corresponding investment strategies for distribution networks.The main achievements of this article are as follows:(1)The research status of distributed energy resources and the impact of distributed energy development on distribution network investment is sorted out and summarized,and related theories such as distribution network investment benefits and system dynamics are sorted out and elaborated;(2)Based on the impact of distributed energy development on distribution network investment,the impact of distributed energy development on distribution network investment is studied.and the investment demand and four main investment directions of distribution network under distributed energy development are summarized by analyzing the impact of distributed energy development on distribution network investment in typical countries,namely flexible transformation engineering investment,network connection and grid enhancement engineering investment,intelligent transformation engineering investment and safety engineering investment;(3)The key evaluation indicators were selected from the three dimensions of economic benefits,social benefits and environmental benefits of distribution network investment to characterize the investment benefits of distribution networks,and then the empirical research methods in social transmission path analysis were used to depict the transmission path and causal relationship diagram of distributed energy resources and distribution network investment benefits in the four investment directions with the path of investment direction-investment measures-specific indicators-characterization indicators.On this basis,the system dynamics principle is used to construct a subsystem model of four investment directions according to the causal diagram between the development of distributed energy resources and the investment benefits of distribution network;(4)Taking the actual development of the distribution network in Province A as an example,the correlation between the development of distributed energy resources and the investment benefits of the distribution network is simulated,and the correlation between the development of distributed energy resources and the investment benefits of the distribution network is analyzed according to the simulation operation results,and the investment suggestions of the distribution network under different distributed energy development scenarios are given.The correlation model between distributed energy development and distribution network investment efficiency established in this article can better reflect the correlation between distributed energy development and distribution network investment efficiency,thus providing reference basis for distribution network investment decision-making under distributed energy development,which is conducive to promoting high-quality development of the power grid and improving distribution network investment efficiency.