| The automobile industry is an important pillar of the national economy,with huge scale effect and industrial scale driving effect,and plays an important role in China’s economic development and social stability.China and ASEAN are each other’s largest trading partner and important investment partner.In addition,Southeast Asian countries have large population density,continuous economic development and continuous improvement of residents’ consumption power.Chinese automobiles have a huge development potential in Southeast Asian consumer market.If China’s automobile industry can grasp the new opportunities of "The Belt and Road",make use of the rules of trade in goods,trade in services,investment rules and other relevant rules in RCEP to bring policy benefits to the development of automobile export to Southeast Asia,and actively integrate into the ASEAN market,it will greatly promote the development of China’s automobile industry.Based on this,this paper firstly calculates the technical complexity of automobile export between China and other 29 major automobile exporting countries in the world by using the trade data from 2010 to 2020,and analyzes the international competitiveness of China’s automobile products as a whole and all kinds of products.On this basis,this paper analyzes the current situation of the ASEAN auto market from the perspectives of the import country structure,the import product structure and the export product structure of China to ASEAN.It is found that Chinese automobile products have gradually improved from the competitive disadvantage position in 2010 to the competitive advantage position,and their competitiveness began to improve rapidly after 2015,and the overall improvement speed ranks the second in the world.Japanese automobile products occupy the majority market share of ASEAN automobile market,but the export volume shows a declining trend.The market share of Chinese automobile products ranks the second place and shows an obvious trend of growth.China is expected to surpass Japan and become the largest importer of automobile products in ASEAN.Secondly,in the empirical analysis,in order to reduce the endogeneity problem,this paper calculates the technical complexity index of automobile export from 2007 to 2021 according to UIBE database data.On this basis,the two-stage least square method is used to estimate the impact of changes in Chinese automobile technical complexity on automobile exports to ASEAN countries.It is found that the improvement of technical complexity has a significant promoting effect on the export of automobile products to ASEAN.The increase of export price level and per capita income level of importing country will weaken the positive influence of technical complexity on product export.Under the influence of technological innovation,the increase of export price level and per capita income level will enhance the positive impact of technological complexity on products.Therefore,China should improve the research and development level of the automobile industry,actively improve the policy environment for independent innovation of China’s automobile industry,actively build Chinese automobile brands,complete the upgrading of China’s automobile industry with technological innovation as the core,and enhance the international competitiveness of Chinese automobile products. |
