Risk Assessment Of International Transport Of China-Europe Freight Trains Based On System Dynamics

The sudden outbreak of the novel coronavirus in 2020 has intensified the instability of international transport,and the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2021 has further worsened international transport,bringing a cold winter to sea and air transport.As an important carrier platform of the Belt and Road Initiative,China-Europe freight trains are playing an important role as a well-known brand of international logistics.When air and sea transportation were limited during the epidemic and war,the China-Europe Express not only provided stable international transportation for the world,but also promoted the transportation and cooperation of epidemic prevention materials among countries along the Belt and Road,further promoting the friendly development of China-Europe relations.Nowadays,the world is undergoing profound changes rarely seen in a century,and the trend of economic globalization is irreversible.The international transport of China-Europe Express trains has accumulated precious and high-quality resources.However,due to its unique cross-border supply chain,the international transport of China-Europe Express trains may be affected by exogenous factors.It has become the focus of the research and practice of the international transport of ChinaEurope freight trains to develop opportunities in the crisis and open new ones in the changing situation.Effective prevention and control of transport risks is an important way to ensure the highquality development of international transport and trade of China-Europe freight trains,as well as an important means to cope with the complicated international environment.To this end,all parties of China-Europe freight trains must adapt to the complex international situation by preventing and controlling international transport risks,and must strive to have the adaptive capabilities of actively preventing risk impact and matching response to changes in demand.However,there is a lack of scientific evaluation on the risk of international transport of ChinaEurope freight trains in the current academic circle.Most of the research on the risk of ChinaEurope freight trains only focuses on a specific field,which is not convenient for comprehensive evaluation and analysis of the overall risk of international transport.Therefore,from the overall perspective of international transport,the construction of risk assessment index system for international transport of China-Europe freight trains and scientific risk assessment are not only conducive to meeting the requirements of international transport security of ChinaEurope freight trains combining peacetime and war,but also conducive to realizing the goal of high-quality sustainable development of international transport of China-Europe freight trains,so as to better build a community of interests,responsibilities and destiny of "The Belt and Road".The research of this paper is mainly divided into five parts: firstly,the background of the topic selection,research significance,research methods and technical routes are briefly described,and relevant literature is reviewed,and the overall risk level of international transport of China-Europe freight trains is evaluated from the perspective of system dynamics.Secondly,based on the research of many scholars in the academic circle,this paper analyzes the characteristics and risk definition of international transport of China-Europe freight trains,and explains the necessity and feasibility of risk assessment of international transport of ChinaEurope freight trains.Thirdly,the selection principles,methods and processes of evaluation indicators are clearly defined,and three first-level indicators,namely macro environmental risk,industrial environmental risk and enterprise operation risk,as well as second-level and thirdlevel indicators,are preliminarily selected.The indicators are modified by expert scoring method,and finally the evaluation index system is formed and appropriate evaluation methods are selected.Fourthly,the system dynamics model is used to analyze the causal relationship between different subsystems and the whole system by taking the first,second and third level evaluation indexes established in Chapter 3 as system variables.At the same time,the risk indexes of each link in the transportation risk subsystem are constructed,and the corresponding causal diagram and the overall equation are analyzed.Fifthly,taking Jiangsu-Europe freight train as an example,the empirical research was carried out to analyze and apply the evaluation results,and the improvement measures for risk prevention and control were put forward from the macro,industrial and enterprise aspects.Based on the new perspective of the risk of international transport of China-Europe freight trains,this paper reviews the literature and constructs an index system for risk assessment of international transport of China-Europe freight trains.Information sensitivity and system dynamics methods are adopted to evaluate the international transport of China-Europe freight trains.Based on the research,this paper draws the following conclusions: it intends to evaluate and prevent the risk of international transport of China-Europe freight trains from three aspects:macro environmental risk,industrial environmental risk and enterprise operation risk.System dynamics can effectively evaluate the risk level of international transport of China-Europe freight trains.The risk of international transport of Jiangsu Europe Freight train rises briefly at first and then decreases to a stable level,in which the macro environmental risk is at a high level,followed by the risk of enterprise operation and industrial environment.After the implementation of risk control strategy,the overall risk of international transport of Jiangsu Europe freight train is reduced,and the risk of all links is also decreased.