Research On Multiple Drivers And Incentive Mechanisms For The Development Of The Prefabricated Building Industry

Since the reform and opening up,the construction industry as a pillar industry of the national economy for China’s urbanization and national economic growth has made important contributions.However,along with the continuous promotion of China’s ecological civilization construction and "double carbon" strategic goals,the construction industry,as an important field of energy consumption and carbon emissions,urgently needs to transform and upgrade to achieve the goal of green low-carbon development.Compared with the traditional crude construction method,the prefabricated building has the characteristics of high efficiency and quality,energy saving and emission reduction,green environment protection,etc.In recent years,under the impetus of policy,China’s prefabricated buildings have entered a period of rapid development,but there is still a large gap compared with developed countries,the development situation is less than ideal,and there are many bottlenecks.The purpose of this paper is to analyze the multi-driven mechanism of the development of the prefabricated building industry and the evolutionary game of the supply side of prefabricated building,and to provide reference for the formulation of incentive strategies for the development of the prefabricated building industry in line with China’s national conditions.Based on the analysis of the current situation of research related to the development of the prefabricated building industry,and combined with the development of China’s prefabricated building industry,this paper conducts a study on the driving mechanism and incentive mechanism of the development of the prefabricated building industry.Specifically,the main research contents are as follows: First,the analysis of the multiple drivers of the development of the prefabricated building industry.The indicator system of driving factors is determined from five dimensions: policy support,economic level,social awareness,technical specification,and market environment.Then,based on the analysis of the correlations among the indicators,the theoretical hypotheses are proposed and the structural equation model is constructed to explore the key driving factors of the development of the prefabricated building industry and their paths of action,and to reveal the mechanism of the multiple drivers of the development of the prefabricated building industry.Second,the supply-side incentive analysis of prefabricated building.From the supply-side perspective,the subject and object of the incentive mechanism for the development of prefabricated building industry are identified and their behaviors are analyzed.The evolutionary game model of the government and developers is constructed,and the evolutionary stabilization strategies of the system under the static and dynamic incentive and punishment mechanisms are analyzed respectively.The computer simulations are conducted using MATLAB software in conjunction with actual cases to analyze the influence of the main exogenous variables on the behavioral choices of the government and developers under the dynamic incentive and punishment mechanism.Third,the construction of incentive mechanism for the development of the prefabricated building industry.According to the results of the analysis of the driving factors and the incentive strength determined by the evolutionary game,combined with the incentive target of the development of the prefabricated building industry,the incentive mechanism system of prefabricated building is constructed in five aspects: policy guarantee,economic incentive,social promotion,technology guarantee and market cultivation.Research shows that the development of the prefabricated building industry is jointly driven by five major factors: policy support,economic level,social awareness,technical specifications and market environment,and that these five driving factors have different magnitudes of driving force on the development of the prefabricated building industry:government support(29)market environment(29)economic level(29)technical specifications(29)social consciousness.In the analysis of the supply-side evolutionary incentives of prefabricated buildings,when the government implements a static reward and punishment mechanism,the system does not have evolutionary stability and when dynamic reward and punishment mechanism are adopted,it can effectively make up for the shortcomings of the static reward and punishment mechanism to achieve an evolutionary stable state.Under the dynamic incentive and penalty mechanism,the probability of the government to implement incentive and constraint policies is inversely proportional to the policy cost,subsidy ceiling,and tax ceiling,and the probability of developers to apply assembled buildings is negatively inversely proportional to the policy cost and subsidy ceiling,and positively proportional to the tax ceiling.The results of this study have important implications for the design of incentive mechanisms and the control of incentive strength for the development of the prefabricated building industry.