Study On Scenario Analysis Method Of Low-carbon Construction Project Planning

Low-carbon development is new idea and action responding to climate change inrecent years. The core of the low-carbon development is to reduce the carbon emissionsgenerating from the process of development. In the urban community carbon emissions,the proportion of carbon emissions in buildings and transport are increasing. From theangle of urban communities and construction projects, analyzes carbon emissionreduction is a problem need to urgently solve in construction project field.Scenario analysis has important value in the stage of low-carbon constructionproject planning, it can analyze and describe different situation combinations and explorethe best low-carbon development path of the project. From the pre-planning ofconstruction projects, using scenario analysis method to research the measures to reducethe carbon emissions of construction projects is very meaningful.This paper is for the support of two theories, low-carbon urban construction andcommunity planning theory, construction project planning and statistical forecastingtheory. Through in-depth analysis of concept connotation, application objects andapplication practices on scenario analysis method, proposes the scenario analysis flow oflow-carbon construction project planning, the flow is to say: scenario design, scenarioprobability modeling, scenarios description and scenario analysis summary. According tothe flow, researches the low-carbon construction project planning using scenario analysismethod, describes ideal, average, minimum scenario types of the low-carbon constructionproject planning, summarizes the method to calculate carbon reduction of differentscenarios, sums up the planning strategy of low-carbon construction project from landintensive use, energy sustainable use, sense of resident participation and communityecological resource recycling chain.This paper picks up Baibuting community low-carbon construction project planningand a single building planning as two cases for intensively studying. Through Baibutingcommunity low-carbon construction project planning, identifies level of economic development, low-carbon development policies, low carbon construction technology,low-carbon social consciousness and the surrounding environment impact five corefactors influencing community low-carbon development. By calculating the probabilityof the key events and combinations, obtains the probability of the best communitylow-carbon development scenarios.Through a single building planning, describes andanalyze three different low-carbon scenario of the single building, calculates carbonemission reductions of different scenarios refer to baseline building.