Economic Interdependence And China-Vietnam Security Relation

Does economic interdependence cause conflict? This issue has caused a long-term debate in the international relations academic community.In the diplomatic practice between China and Vietnam,Sino-Vietnam economic and trade relations have developed rapidly in recent years,the degree of economic interdependence has deepened,and the total bilateral trade volume has continued to increase.However,the close economic ties do not seem to play a role in stabilizing security relations.The two countries have frequent frictions in the security field,especially on the South China Sea issue: Does the economic interdependence between China and Vietnam have an impact on the security relations between the two countries?Or is it because of historical issues,sovereignty disputes,and third-party factors between the two countries that have caused constant friction between China and Vietnam in the security field at this stage?In order to explain this phenomenon,this paper attempts to analyze the bilateral trade and security relations between China and Vietnam with the trade expectation theory.Based on the trade expectations theory,this paper introduces a "conflict escalation model" to analyze the relationship between economic interdependence and conflict.Between 2008 and 2017,Vietnam’s trade expectations with China were hit by relative gains,domestic Vietnamese nationalism,and intervention by major powers outside the region,thus creating a need for Vietnam to improve trade expectations.By analyzing the role of economic interdependence in the security-conflict game between China and Vietnam,this paper finds that China’s low economic dependence on Vietnam may be the cause of the lower-level conflict in this stage,while Vietnam’s high economic dependence on China To a certain extent,low-level conflicts are prevented from turning to high-level conflicts.China and Vietnam should seek to resolve conflicts through peaceful negotiation,establish a cooperation mechanism,and actively guide Vietnam to form a positive expectation of trade with China,so as to avoid regression in security relations.