The Evolution Of Vietnam’s Strategic Choices Towards China Since The Establishment Of Diplomatic Relations

Combing through the development of Sino-vietnamese relations since the establishment of diplomatic ties,we can find that Vietnam’s strategy towards China has undergone three major changes.From the establishment of diplomatic ties between the two countries in 1950 to the mid-late 1970 s,Vietnam pursued a strategy of following China.In the late 1970 s,the two countries gradually moved towards confrontation,and Vietnam adopted a strategy of checks and balances against China.Since the normalization of relations between the two countries in 1990,Vietnam’s strategy toward China has presented obvious characteristics of“Hedging”.The current studies on the motivation of Vietnam’s strategic choice towards China are abundant,but they mostly focus on the international system,changes in the national political landscape and other related factors,while ignoring the subjective initiative of the state as a strategic chooser and lacking consideration of inter-state interaction.Undeniably,national foreign policy choices are influenced by multiple factors,including the pursuit of national interests and the status of the state in the international community.Among them,national interests are usually the primary consideration.Vietnam’s strategy toward China is also a choice made after fully considering national interests,and the sense of relative deprivation is a psychological projection formed by Vietnam in the process of measuring the gains and losses of national interests.Therefore,this paper attempts to use the theory of relative deprivation,from the state and social levels of analysis,to study the logic of Vietnam’s strategic choice towards China in different historical periods,and thus to make a prediction and outlook on the development trend of Vietnam’s strategy towards China.At the national level,the sense of relative deprivation refers to the unilateral negative perceptions of different actors within the state that have higher value expectations and lower value gains for the state in international social interactions.When a sense of relative deprivation arises,political elites will generally negotiate with the target state and seek third-party support,while the public tends to protest to express their values and obtain positive value compensation.Under the interaction between the government and the public,the sense of relative deprivation will be suppressed or stimulated,forming different cognitive combinations and thus influencing the choice of national diplomatic strategies.On this basis,this paper proposes four research hypotheses on the tendency of national diplomatic strategy choice,and uses two shifts in Vietnam’s strategy toward China as examples to test two of them.During the period of Vietnam’s war against France and the United States,China was Vietnam’s main value supplier,who did its best to meet Vietnam’s value expectations in terms of material aid and revolutionary experience.Therefore,Vietnam did not feel a sense of relative deprivation at this stage and pursued a strategy of following China,with relations between the two countries in the honeymoon period.However,after Vietnam achieved national reunification,China reduced its aid to Vietnam.The two countries had serious disagreements over territorial sovereignty and the “Indochina Federation” issue.At the same time,the Soviet Union replaced China as a supplier of value to Vietnam’s economic and political expectations.The sense of relative deprivation among the Vietnamese political elite grew stronger.At the same time,the Vietnamese people were more eager for the country’s political independence and economic recovery.They believed that the country’s value expectations had not been met and their sense of relative deprivation was equally strong.However,due to the low degree of political openness in Vietnam at this time,the public’s sense of relative deprivation did not translate into a social movement with wide influence.The negative interactions between the two countries led Vietnam to adopt a strategy of checks and balances with China.By the late 1980 s,with the collapse of the Soviet Union,Vietnam was under enormous political,economic,and security pressures,not only to promote its economic development,but also to defend itself against “peaceful evolution” from the West.At the same time,China,which has developed rapidly through reform and opening up,has the strength to meet Vietnam’s political and economic expectations.The good interaction between China and Vietnam has led to a diminishing sense of relative deprivation among the Vietnamese political elite.On the contrary,the Vietnamese people are strongly dissatisfied with China over the South China Sea issue.In an increasingly relaxed and open political and social environment,the public’s sense of relative deprivation has been growing and transformed into an influential social movement,pressure on the Vietnamese government.Therefore,despite the weakening of the sense of relative deprivation among the political elite,Vietnam has opted for a hedging strategy against China in the presence of a strong sense of relative deprivation among the population and the existence of third-party countries such as the United States,Japan,and India that can meet Vietnam’s security value expectations.With the current international situation becoming more and more uncertain,it is very likely that Vietnam will continue to maintain its strategy of hedging against China and strengthen political and economic cooperation with China,at the same time,strengthen strategic partnerships with other countries to ensure national security,as a response to the international system,regional order uncertainties,to maximize national interests.