Under The Background Of Population Aging-Resource Allocation And Optimization Of Institutional Elderly Care Facilities In Nanjing

As the country will actively respond to the aging of the population into the medium and long-term planning,how to integrate regional pension resources to provide medical care and support for the elderly has become a topic of great research value.This paper focuses on the adaptation of elderly care resources in Nanjing by constructing spatial autocorrelation model and Two-step floating catchment area method.Because the implementation of relevant methods and models in this paper requires the scale of basic units and geographic information data,we use crawler technology to obtain and sort out the data of the scale,longitude and latitude of residential areas and institutional elderly care facilities in the Internet,and visualize the sorted data through Arc GIS software.Secondly,based on the experience table of China’s life insurance industry,this paper establishes the gender specific population prediction model of Nanjing by using the age method in population actuary,forecasts the regional and gender specific population data of Nanjing in 2030,and carries out street processing according to the administrative division of the "seven general population" data,and modifies the administrative division of the "six general population".Then,combined with the "six general population","seven general population" and the predicted data,this paper explores the temporal and spatial distribution trend and law of the aging population in Nanjing from 2010 to2030 from three dimensions: the number of aging population,the aging rate and the density of aging population.Then,based on geoda software,taking the density of elderly population in Nanjing in 2030 and the scale of existing institutional elderly care facilities in 2020 as variables,a spatial autocorrelation model is constructed to analyze the adaptation of elderly care resources in Nanjing.Finally,according to the road network map of Nanjing and the preset traffic speed,the traditional2 SFCA and Gaussian 2SFCA models are calculated and constructed based on the OD cost matrix.The main results obtained through prediction and simulation are as follows:(1)by 2030,the three districts with the largest number of permanent residents aged 65 and over in Nanjing are Jiangning District,Gulou District and Liuhe District;The area with the highest aging rate is Gaochun district;Considering the regional area factor,the elderly population density of Qinhuai District,Gulou District and Xuanwu District ranks among the top three.(2)The existing pension resources in Nanjing are abundant,but the regional development is uncoordinated.From the overall pension resources,Lishui district and Pukou District in the outer edge area are more suitable,and Qinhuai District in the central urban area is rich in pension resources.(3)From the perspective of the accessibility level of pension resources,Lishui and Pukou districts are rich in pension resources,but the accessibility is poor due to infrastructure problems such as transportation;On the contrary,the transportation in the central urban area and the main urban area is very convenient.Although the elderly care resources in some streets are relatively scarce,more and better elderly care resources can be obtained with the help of the regional developed transportation network.