| The number of population is increasing with the quick development of economic.It is a major problem about aging society at present.The problem of population aging in Hebei province has been prominent in recent years.From 2016 to 2020,the population aging level is above the national average,and the aging degree is gradually deepening.Population aging is not only a social problem,but also an economic problem affecting the economy.Population aging will directly or indirectly affect economic development in many aspects.This paper explores the economic development of Hebei province under the general trend of population aging from different perspectives and excavates the possible problems in consumption and savings.It could help to deepen cognition to the problem of an ageing population and make some responses to reduce the negative impact of population aging before the coming of an aging population growth peak,inclouding finding out the relevant development point to promote economic growth.Firstly,this paper analyzes the present situation of population aging in Hebei province.According to the collation and comparative analysis of the population census data in Hebei province,it is found that the population aging in Hebei province has a fast increase rate of aging population,large differences between regions of the elderly population,large differences between cities and towns.According to the data analysis of the seventh national population census,the gender difference of the elderly population over 65 years old in Hebei province is obvious,and the dependency ratio of the elderly population is higher than the speed of economic development.Secondly,the consumption path is used to explore consumption with the change of population age structure by using life-cycle consumption theory,precautionary savings theory and neoclassical economic growth theory to.The impact of population aging on consumption level can be explained by the change of consumption tendency and income level.In addition,the savings factor is added into the research path to analyze the impact mechanism of population aging on the personal savings rate of residents.With the study from the dependency ratio of the elderly population,it is concluded that the increase of the old-age dependency ratio will have a negative effect on personal savings according to the study from the dependency ratio of the elderly population.Finally,this paper studies the influence path between consumption and savings on population aging and economic growth by VECM model The study shows that in the short term,population aging in Hebei province will improve residents’ consumption,but in the long term,the aging population in Hebei province will reduce residents’ savings and consumption levels,thus inhibiting economic growth.Based on the above analysis,this paper explores the problems of lagging population aging in Hebei province and puts forward relevant suggestions.There are two main innovations in this paper: first,from the perspective of consumption and savings,this paper studies the impact of population aging on Hebei province and finds that population aging will stimulate consumption in the short term,inhibit savings in the long term and have a negative impact on the economy;Second,in order to avoid pseudo regression,construct VECM model to explore the long-term relationship among population aging,consumption,savings and economy in Hebei province. |
