Research On The Influence Of Population Ageing On The Optimization And Upgrading Of Service Industry

China’s population aging problem began to appear at the beginning of the 21 st century.Under the influence of China’s birth control policy and economic development,China’s aging speed has been expediting and the degree has been deepening,so the population aging problem has become increasingly serious.As population ageing levels rise,problems such as “The disappearance of the demographic dividend” and “Getting old before getting rich” begin to emerge.The Fifth Plenary Session of the 19 th Central Committee has elevated the active response to ageing to a national strategy,the report of the 20 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China(CPC)points out that it is an urgent matter to actively deal with the problem of aging.At the same time,the trend of global economic development is shifting from thinking highly of “Industrial economy” to “Service economy”,as aging population continues to grow,it is also facing a service-oriented transformation of its economic structure.Population ageing has a serious effect on the structure of the service sector;it is of practical significance to study the influence between them.This paper explores the rationalization and upgrading of the structure of the service industry from the perspectives of supply and demand,and examines the impact of population ageing population ageing on the optimization and upgrading of the structure of the service industry.In the research of mechanism,through studying the consumption demand effect,labor supply effect and human capital effect such as the consumption tendency of the aging population,we can draw three major paths that the aging population affects the optimization and upgrading of the service industry structure.The empirical research part uses the provincial panel data from 2008 to2019 to test the existence of the three major effects using the intermediary effect model,with the help of threshold effect model;it further verifies whether the impact of aging on the optimization and upgrading of service industry structure is different under different development levels.The results: First,the population ageing has rationalized the structure of the service sector through the effects of labor supply,consumer demand and human capital,but the impact on the upgrading of the service sector is different.By influencing labor productivity,the population ageing has promoted the transfer of capital from labor-intensive to production-intensive industries,advanced the structure of the service sector,and,as a result of factors such as the physiological conditions of the ageing population,the demand of the aging population for consumer service industry is larger than that for producer service industry,which makes the aging population have negative effect on producer service industry,and is not beneficial to the advanced structure of service industry In addition,with regard to the corresponding human capital,the higher level of the service sector is affected by the increase in the average number of years of education,which has not yet shown up in the short term.Secondly,the population ageing has a significant threshold effect on the optimization and upgrading of the service industry structure.Under different Urbanization by country,the impact of the population ageing on the optimization and upgrading of the service industry structure is non-linear,in addition,Urbanization by country areas were more effective than Urbanization by country areas.Moreover,when the Urbanization by country exceeds the threshold,the impact coefficient of ageing on the rationalization and upgrading of services becomes larger.The higher the Urbanization by country,the greater the role of regional population ageing in rationalizing the services sector,but the degree to which services are advanced is constrained.This paper summarizes the full text based on the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis above,and puts forward targeted suggestions for the development of China’s service industry from the perspective of population aging in combination with China’s actual situation.First,on the demand side,we should develop industries for the elderly,encourage their consumption,increase their consumption capacity,and make full use of the elderly industry to stimulate the upgrading of the service industry structure.Second,on the supply side,we should encourage delayed retirement,promote flexible employment for the elderly,make full use of science and technology,improve labor productivity and compensate for the negative impact of population ageing on the labor supply.Third,we will promote urbanization,strongly support the development of knowledge-intensive and highly employable services,and upgrade the structure of the service sector.Provide strong guarantee for the development of service industry in areas with low urbanization level.