Research On Countermeasures Of Chongqing Aging Industry Development Based On System Dynamics

With the deepening of the aging of the population,the development of the aging industry can not only provide the elderly with diversified supplies for the elderly,but also reduce the economic pressure caused by the aging of the population,and create a new economic growth point for Chongqing with serious aging problems.However,the development of Chongqing’s aging industry is still in its infancy.It is not only mixed with the elderly care industry in concept,but also has problems such as unclear industrial nature and unclear industry in practice.Therefore,in order to scientifically develop Chongqing’s aging industry,it is necessary to explore the development scale and policy support of Chongqing’s aging industry.Based on the data of Chongqing’s population aging since 1997,this paper uses qualitative and quantitative analysis methods to study the degree,speed and dependency ratio of Chongqing’s population aging,selects 30 analyticable texts of the aging industry from the central and Chongqing policy document libraries,obtains 1475 content analysis units from the perspective of policy tools,and analyzes the problems of the aging industry from the perspective of policy tools and the purpose of serving the elderly.At the same time,based on the characteristics of system dynamics,the development model of Chongqing’s aging industry is constructed based on the four subsystems of population,economy,demand and supply,and the impact on the market demand and supply scale of Chongqing’s aging industry is judged by combining the changes in the policy mix of the income of the aging population,consumption of the aging population,R&D funds,and fixed assets investment of the aging industry,It also provides feasible policy suggestions and development strategies for the development of the aging industry in Chongqing based on the excellent experience of the development of the aging industry in foreign countries.The study found that the aging situation in Chongqing has a rapid aging rate,an obvious aging trend,an obvious difference between urban and rural population aging,an obvious phenomenon of "empty nest elderly",and a serious problem of "getting old before getting rich",and explained it from the perspective of history and culture,policy,medical and health care,and population outflow.It is also found that the aging industry has the problems of irrational allocation of policy tools and lack of systematic policy measures under the dimension of policy tools,and the problem of paying less attention to the spiritual needs of the elderly at a lower level of service for the elderly under the dimension of the elderly.According to the results of the model,the market demand and supply scale of Chongqing’s aging industry will continue to grow in the next 10 years,and the growth rate of market demand and supply will show a high growth trend,but the growth rate of market supply will continue to be lower than the growth rate of market demand.It is found that the increase of income of the elderly population,R&D funds and fixed assets investment of the elderly industry has an increasing impact on the market demand and supply scale of the elderly industry in Chongqing to varying degrees,while the increase of consumption of the elderly population will have a negative impact on the market demand and supply scale of the elderly industry in Chongqing.We also use the combination of policies to find that the policy combination of fixed assets investment and income of the elderly has the greatest impact on the market demand and supply scale of the aging industry in Chongqing when there are double changes,and the policy combination of fixed assets investment,R&D funds and income of the elderly industry has the greatest impact on the market demand scale of the aging industry in Chongqing when there are three changes,while the consumption of the elderly,fixed assets investment of the aging industry The policy combination of R&D funds has the greatest impact on the supply scale of Chongqing’s aging industry market.Finally,policy recommendations are put forward.First,optimize the use of policy tools.The environment-based,demand-based and supply-based policy tools have their own merits.Facing different scenarios,only by reasonably allocating the proportion of policy tools can we achieve twice the result with half the effort.The second is to improve the systematization of policy tools.Policy formulation is only the first step.Without the introduction of the underlying design in advance,the improvement of the supporting rules in the process,and the evaluation of the effect after the implementation,any policy can only be a castle in the air.The third is to improve the level of service for the elderly.It is the premise of steady development for the elderly industry to meet the basic needs of the elderly,but the satisfaction of the spiritual needs of the elderly is the foundation of high-quality development.And put forward the development strategy.First,balance the relationship between market demand and supply.The scenario analysis shows that the increase in consumption of the elderly population alone will cause no harm or benefit.It is necessary to combine the specific situation of Chongqing’s per capita GDP and per capita consumption level,pay attention to the actual needs of the elderly,balance the supply relationship,and build a complete Chongqing aging industry chain.Second,increase investment in science and technology in the aging industry.The scenario analysis once again shows that science and technology is the first productive force.Only by paying attention to scientific and technological investment and increasing research and development costs can we build an intelligent aging industrial chain integrating "production,education and research".Third,strengthen capital cooperation between the government and civil society.Chongqing,as the western reform and opening-up highland and the western financial center in the national Chengdu-Chongqing double-city economic circle,can take the lead in the field of aging industry,which is related to people’s livelihood.It should make good use of the broad prospects of Chongqing’s aging industry market,reasonably guide the combination of government and private capital,and cut a blood path.Fourth,pay attention to the transformation of the concept of social pension.The formation of "9073" pattern for the elderly in China is related to the booming development of the aging industry in the past,which contains huge market potential of the aging industry.Chongqing should use and guide the financial media platform to provide a lasting and subtle impact on the development of the aging industry in Chongqing,and contribute to the development of the aging industry in Chongqing in the future.