| It is well known that over the next several decades, the proportion of the population of retirement age will increase dramatically in the world and this century will be a aging one. Aging population will affect economics on many aspects, such as labour deficiencies, decrease in output efficiency, private savings decline and lack of capital. It can also play a negative role in trade and investment and will put significant upward pressure on total government spending stemming from increased demands for health care services and higher public pension payments.In this paper a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to explore the economic impact of population aging in China. CGE method is a quantitative policy analysis tool originating from 1960's, and has been used for many countries. The CGE method views the economy system as a whole, and it stresses the interaction among all parts of the system. It includes the description of agents and their behaviors, the equilibrium mechanism of the market, and the macroeconomic characteristics. It is especially adaptable to analyze the inter-sector and inter institutional effects and the overall social-economic impact due to policy change. A static CGE model is constructed and applied to simulate the aging population problem and analyze it in contrast between 2000 and 2050. An overlapping generations model (OLG) are integrated in this CGE model to describe the consumers' behaviors. A computer simulation software-GAMS is used to implement the model, which displays the advantages of information technology on economic research.This dissertation includes 6 chapters. The major research is about CGE modeling, the model's structure and simulating the economic effect caused by the changes to the demographic structure of the population in China.Chapter 1 is a conclusion of world aging crisis, economic effects caused by thiscrisis and the significance of my work. It's also the reviews of literature and introduction to the early work at population aging problem and appliance of CGE model, OLG model and computer science on this aspect. The theory basis, research contents, data resources, methods and several concepts are also discussed.Chapter 2 introduces the recent situation of aging population in the world, especially in china. It also forecasts the trends of aging in the 21st century.Chapter 3 introduces CGE model's basis-general equilibrium theory and the relationship between them. The concept of CGE model and its advantages on aging economic impact are also discussed. Other quantitative analytical methods include I/O model, liner programming model and Macro-econometric Model etc. This chapter also discusses the advantage of CGE model comparing with the upon methods. The production and consumption behavior, government and trade characteristics are introduced in detail. It introduces some micro-economics theory relating to the dissertation in the end.Chapter 4 describes the structures of CGE model for Chinese aging impact on economics, the calibration process and its implementation. It analyzes the economic impact of Chinese aging with the comparative-static method.Chapter 5 introduces some micro-econometric countermeasures against aging crisis. China's pension system and its reform are also discussed.Chapter 6 provides a summary of this dissertation and gives some discussions of its limitations and possible extensions. |
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