Quantitative Analysis Of The Influence Of Macroeconomic Factors On The Incidence Rate Of Property Crimes

The incidence of property crimes is affected by multiple economic factors,such as education level,gender ratio,fiscal expenditure,unemployment rate,etc.Among them,whether and how macroeconomic factors,such as gross National product,income gap,consumption level,urbanization rate,etc.,affect the incidence of property crimes has become a problem worth studying.Since the reform and opening up,China’s economy has been developing rapidly and people’s living standards and other aspects have been greatly improved.Although China has been comprehensively lifted out of poverty,there are still some areas in relative poverty,with a large gap between urban and rural areas,and a certain gap in consumption level between China and developed countries.At the same time,the number of criminal cases,especially property crimes,is only increasing,and crime means are becoming more and more diverse.Do all macroeconomic factors influence the incidence of property crime? How are economic factors related to the incidence of property crime? What economic factors are the important factors leading to the rising incidence of property crimes?Starting from the above problems,this paper adopts the national time series data from 2010 to 2020,and uses SPSS statistical analysis software to conduct Pearson correlation analysis and regression analysis on the relevant data to study the correlation between macro factors such as income level,income gap,consumption level,labor market,urbanization and the incidence of property crimes.The correlation regression results show that,Economic growth,the increase of income level,urbanization and residents’ consumption level have multiple impacts on property crime,which is conducive to reducing the occurrence of theft,but will cause the increase of fraud.Income gap,unemployment rate and fraud is positively correlated,and the theft rate is negatively correlated,that is,the income gap is widening,food expenditure in the proportion of household consumption expenditure is increasing,unemployment is rising,these factors may lead to property crimes,especially the incidence of fraud is increasing,but the theft rate will still be reduced.It is noteworthy that,except for the proportion of urban population,the economic factors have the same direction of influence on property crimes and larceny,while the influence direction of fraud is opposite to that of property crimes and larceny.The proportion of urban population is only positively correlated with the crime of fraud,while the rest are negatively correlated.Therefore,the government should strengthen anti-fraud propaganda,improve the public awareness of network security;To prevent and reduce property crimes,we should slow down economic growth,promote high-quality development,and steadily promote urbanization.