Research On Dynamic Mission Planning Of Unconventional Emergencies Based On Scenario Evolution

Unconventional emergencies refer to a type of disasters or accidents that are easy to cause serious,chain-like damage,but have complex characteristics and no obvious warning.Emergency response to unconventional emergencies requires controlling their development within a certain range,reducing losses,and reducing secondary derivative disasters.In order to achieve this goal,the overall capability of the emergency system needs to be improved.At present,there have been a lot of researches on the emergency response of unconventional emergencies,but relatively few studies have combined the scenario evolution with the problems of task planning and resource allocation.Based on the scenario evolution,from the perspective of mission planning,this paper conducts research on emergency decision-making for unconventional emergencies,and mainly completes the following tasks:(1)Before the occurrence of unconventional emergencies,in view of the randomness and uncertainty of scenario evolution,a task planning algorithm based on genetic algorithm and Monte Carlo simulation(Monte Carlo Method-Genetic Algorithm,M-GA)is proposed to obtain the expected task performance Higher mission planning scheme.Compared with the results of other task planning algorithms,the overall efficiency is increased by 16.2%-31% in a simulation environment with uncertain scenario evolution;a After the occurrence of unconventional emergencies,in order to improve the dynamic adaptability of task planning,a dynamic task planning algorithm is proposed based on rules for node events in the scenario evolution model.Compared with the direct use of the " prior " mission planning program,the general increase is22.24%.(2)Select typical cases of unconventional emergencies: earthquake disasters as the research object,and establish an earthquake scenario simulation environment.According to the characteristics of earthquake rescue,improved the scenario evolution model,proposed a "micro-macro" two-level "scenario-task" interactive model,And established a simulation model including earthquake buried pressure personnel estimation model,earthquake disaster personnel dynamic model,and post-earthquake event model to provide application scenario data support for earthquake rescue mission planning.(3)With the support of the joint search and rescue command and dispatch platform,design and develop related scene simulation and task planning modules.And apply relevant research content to actual projects: Based on the software prototype system,an earthquake rescue scenario simulation environment was constructed,and experiments were carried out with the Tianjin earthquake disaster scenario as an example: the effectiveness of the pre-earthquake task planning algorithm and the post-earthquake dynamic task planning algorithm were verified and compared.