The Dynamic Creation Of Digital Emergency Response Plan Based On Scenario Evolution

With the frequent occurrence of unconventional emergencies, improving the accuracy and theefficiency of emergency management has become hot topics which studied by many experts andscholars. The decision model of ’prediction-response’ just can apply to solving the general events.However, for the unpredictability of the occurrence, development and evolution of unconventionalemergency, the new decision model of ’scenario-response’ arises which based on the formal model.From the perspective of scenario evolution considering, the paper regards the digital emergencyplan as the disposal programs and study the dynamic generation of digital emergency plan,providing a reference for the enhancement of ability about emergency management.First of all, the paper analyses the evolution process of scenario about unconventionalemergencies. The structure of scenario evolution system has been designed as the hierarchicalnetwork structure, which can be expressed as ’formative factors’,’key hazard-affected body’,’derived events’ in detail. Then, the object-oriented fuzzy Petri nets has been selected to build themodel of the scenario evolution. As the analysis results of the model, the path of the scenarioevolution always act as the precondition of the follow-up study.Secondly, the paper describes the generating process of digital emergency plan and analysis thedynamic of the process. The paper which based on the evolutionary path, designs the structuretemplate of ’scenario-target-operation-role-receptor’ which can response to implementationactivities, selects the theory of variable structure Petri nets to build the digital generation model andanalysis the dynamic of the generate models. Besides, the results of the generating model arereal-time digital emergency plans.Finally, the earthquake disaster has been chosen to verify the above research work. Afterdetermining the scenario factors of earthquake, the paper builds the model of the scenario evolutionand the digital emergency plan generation. And then, several scenario evolution path will beconcluded after running the evolution model. The paper will choose a scenario evolution path as theinput of the digital emergency plan generating model and analyze the dynamic of the generatingsystem by changing the input, realizing the dynamic generation of digital emergency plan.