The Effect Of Housing Prices On Employment

To a certain extent,the rise in housing prices will increase people’s living cost and crowd out employees.But on the other hand,changes in employment will affect the demand for housing and affect housing prices.In order to catch the effect of housing prices on employment,this paper selects the panel data of 285 prefecture-level cities in China from 2005 to 2017,and uses the interaction of the proportion of unavailable land and the five-year loan interest rate,and the previous year’s area of land granting through"Bidding,Auction and Listing" as two instrument variables.The results show that:1.The rise in housing prices has a crowding-out effect on employee.As housing prices increase by 1%,employment will be reduced by 0.564%;2.The rise in housing prices has produced varying degrees of crowding-out effects on employment in different industries.3.The crowding-out effect on employee occurs in the Midwest cities but not in Eastern cities;4.The crowding-out effect on employee occurs in cities below the third-tier level but not in in the first-and second-tier cities;5.Promoting the upgrading of industrial structure and spending more fiscal expenditure on science and technology can weaken the crowding-out effect of rising housing prices on employee.Using the data of 2016 China Migrants Dynamic Survey(CMDS),we also examine the effects of housing prices on the residents’ willingness to settle down.The study offers somen new results:1.The rise in housing prices has a crowding-out effect on migrants’willingness to settle down.As housing prices increase by 1%,the probability of migrants willing to settle down in the city will be reduced by 5.05%;2.The crowdingout effect is different between migrants owning a house or not.Owning a local house will reduce the crowding-out effect,while owning a house in other cities will increase the crowding-out effect;3.The rise in housing prices has a crowding-out effect both on migrants’engaged in the secondary and tertiary industries;4.As the increasing in housing prices,migrants have weaker willingness to settle down in the in the first-tier cities but stronger willingness to settle down in cities below the third-tier level.