The Impact Of The Flow Of College Graduates On Housing Prices

Since the monetization of housing distribution,China’s urban housing prices have been in a state of rapid rise on the whole.There are great differences between the housing prices in different cities and the growth rate of housing prices,resulting in the differentiation of housing prices among cities.At the same time,a large number of college graduates will be added in the society every year.They flow freely between different cities,which has an important impact on the economic and social development of each city.After in-depth observation,it is found that the different housing prices and housing price growth between cities seem to be closely related to the different flow of college graduates between cities.In the Yangtze River Delta region,the housing prices of college graduates’ net inflow to cities are usually higher,while the housing prices of college graduates’ net outflow from cities are usually lower.High housing prices can not effectively inhibit the inflow of college graduates,and low housing prices can not significantly attract the inflow of college graduates.Then,will the flow of college graduates affect the fluctuation of urban house prices and the differentiation of house prices among cities? What is the impact? This paper will analyze these problems.Firstly,this paper combs and summarizes the existing research results.Then it defines and introduces the core concepts used and the basic theories involved.On this basis,it uses the adjusted Spencer labor market model to analyze the reasons for the differentiation of the choice and mobility of workers with different abilities in the employment area,expound the theoretical influence mechanism of the flow of college graduates as high-capacity workers on the fluctuation of house prices and the differentiation of house prices among cities.Then,based on the employment quality report of some colleges and universities in the Yangtze River Delta region in 2019,this paper analyzes the current employment choice and mobility of college graduates in the region.Based on the housing price data of 41 cities in the region from 2009 to 2018,this paper analyzes the differentiation of housing prices between cities in this period,and summarizes the potential relevance between the two in reality.Then using the relevant data,using the panel two-way fixed effect model,instrumental variable method and panel single threshold model for empirical analysis,it is confirmed that the flow of college graduates can have a significant impact on the fluctuation of house prices and the differentiation of house prices between cities.Through systematic theoretical analysis,current situation analysis and empirical analysis,this paper draws the following conclusions:First,there are obvious differences in the choice and mobility of different ability workers in the employment areas,which is one of the main reasons for the differentiation of housing prices among cities.As a kind of high-capacity laborer,college graduates have four characteristics: easier to settle down,higher purchasing power,yearning for urban life and large inflow scale.They can significantly improve the demand of housing market and rental market in the city,and thus lead to the rise of house prices.However,because of the different flow situation and scale of college graduates in different cities,the stimulating effect of college graduates on housing prices varies from city to city,which leads to the differentiation of housing prices among cities.Second,there is a consistent preference between the choice of employment areas within the region and the mobility between regions.Most of the graduates tend to choose and flow to the economically developed and environmental areas in the region,mainly municipalities,first tier cities and provincial capital cities.Third,there is spatial correlation of housing prices among cities in the Yangtze River Delta region,and there is also a certain degree of differentiation of housing prices.The southeast of the region,that is,Shanghai,Southern Jiangsu and most of Zhejiang,is a high price region;the northwest of the region,that is,Northern Jiangsu and most of Anhui,is a low price region.The average housing price of high housing price area has been more than twice that of low housing price area,and the differentiation degree of housing price of two types of areas has been expanding.Fourth,the flow of college graduates in the Yangtze River Delta region has a significant stimulating effect on urban housing prices in the region,and it is also one of the main reasons for the differentiation of urban housing prices.House prices will increase with the inflow of college graduates,and also decrease with the outflow of college graduates.In cities with large scale of college graduates or better career development environment,house prices will increase with the flow of college graduates.In cities where the inflow of college graduates is small,the outflow of college graduates or the career development environment is poor,house prices will be restrained by the flow of college graduates or will not change with the flow of college graduates.Therefore,it is necessary to reasonably guide the flow of college graduates in the region,avoid their excessive agglomeration to big cities,and encourage them to support the high-quality economic development of small and medium-sized cities.At the same time,we should prevent the rapid rise of housing prices and the excessive differentiation of housing prices between cities,avoid the possible economic and social crisis caused by high prices and excessive differentiation,and ensure the high-quality integrated development of the whole region.