The Impact Of Urban Housing Prices On The Willingness Of Migrants To Outflow

Since the reform and opening up,the migration characteristics and logic of floating population in China are changing.The seventh census shows that the proportion of floating population in China has reached 26.95%.With the change of industrial structure,talents have gradually become the core factor affecting regional competition,and the "war of grabbing people" has become more and more fierce in various parts of China.With the improvement of living standards,the migration factors of floating population have also changed from simply pursuing economic opportunities to diversified "local qualities" such as public services,urban livability and seeking development opportunities.Among them,house price is an important symbol of local quality and has an important impact on the migration of floating population.During2008-2018,China’s housing prices rose more than 1.5 times that of per capita wages.At the same time,in order to curb the rapid increase of housing prices,China began to implement the housing purchase restriction policy in 2010,aiming at effectively regulating housing prices and "staying without speculation".In this context,will the changes in housing prices and the level of public services affect the outflow will of the floating population who have entered the city? Does the housing purchase restriction policy effectively regulate housing prices and "retain" talents? These are all questions that need to be answered urgently,and they are also the starting point of this paper.Based on the adjustment effect of urban public service level,this paper constructs a comprehensive analysis framework of the impact of housing prices on the floating population’s willingness to flow out.Among them,the influence of the price itself and the change of the price growth rate on the floating willingness of the floating population who have entered the city;Construct an evaluation system of public service indicators,measure the level of urban public service in a multi-dimensional and all-round way,and then study the regulatory effect of public service level in the process of housing prices crowding out floating population;The influence of exogenous shock(purchase restriction)on the floating population’s outflow willingness.In addition,this paper also confirms that housing prices,public services and exogenous shocks have different effects on the floating population with different characteristics.The research mainly uses econometric analysis,entropy weight method and comparative analysis method.This paper draws the following conclusions:(1)On the whole,there is crowdingout effect in urban housing price rise,which is heterogeneous among floating population with different characteristics.(2)There is a positive U-shaped relationship between the housing price growth rate and the floating population’s willingness to flow out.(3)The level of public service supply has a negative moderating effect on the crowding-out effect of high housing prices,and the improvement of public service level is conducive to reducing the floating population’s willingness to flow out.(4)The purchase restriction policy has effectively controlled the rise of house prices,curbed the demand for speculative house purchases,and effectively reduced the outflow willingness of some floating population.According to the above conclusions,this paper puts forward the following policy suggestions: First,governments at all levels must pay attention to the crowding out effect of rising housing prices on the labor force entering the city,abandon real estate as a means to stimulate economic development,and rationally supply land according to population changes and urban development trends.When formulating the talent introduction policy,we should formulate a more detailed and targeted subsidy policy according to the characteristics of local population mobility.Secondly,the government should improve the supply level of public services,actively promote the equalization of public services,and ensure the accessibility of public services for floating population.Finally,the government should take various measures to adjust the relationship between supply and demand,do a good job in institutional guarantee,improve the implementation efficiency of the purchase restriction policy,and establish a long-term mechanism for the real estate market to ensure the healthy and orderly development of the real estate market.