Analysis Of The Influence Of The Age Of The First Child On The Fertility Of The Second Child

In the past few decades,China’s rapid economic growth can be partly attributed to the demographic dividend.This demographic dividend is reflected in the fact that the labor force accounts for a high proportion of the total population,while the dependency ratio is low,resulting in a situation of high savings,high investment and high economic growth.However,according to the statistical data,the absolute decline of the working-age population aged 15-59 has occurred in China since 2012,and this downward trend is getting worse and worse.Therefore,if the birth policy is not adjusted,it can be predicted that the future labor supply and demand in China will inevitably appear unbalanced phenomenon.The reason why the birth policy needs to be adjusted is mainly because many factors that affect the growth of labor force,such as the number of working-age population,population growth rate and population age structure,are more closely related than the total fertility rate.However,China’s total fertility rate has not only shown a downward trend year by year,but also the fertility willingness has never reached the international replacement level of 2.1,resulting in a decrease in the dependency ratio of children and an increase in the dependency ratio of the elderly.In order to alleviate the shortage of working-age population,China’s birth policy has been adjusted several times:the two-child policy with only one child,the two-child policy with only one child,the comprehensive two-child policy with all couples having two children,and the three-child policy with one couple having three children.However,it can be found that as a result of policy adjustment,the natural population growth rate only increased briefly in 2016 and 2017,and then it still showed a downward trend.This means that among the factors affecting fertility,the role of macro-policy factors has weakened,and it is no longer the decisive factor affecting family fertility decisions.Therefore,it is important to analyze other factors,especially micro factors,that affect fertility rate.Among many factors that affect the total fertility rate,the cost of raising is the most important one.It is of great practical significance to analyze the influence of this factor on fertility.However,when one child is at different ages,the family’s support cost for one child is usually different.Therefore,different ages of one child may cause different support costs,which will affect the fertility of the second child.This paper uses the survey data of 2018 in China Family Tracking Survey(CFPS)database for research.The reason why micro-database is used for empirical analysis is that whether or not to adopt reproductive behavior does not depend entirely on the policy adjustment of the state.This view can be confirmed by the data analysis of the National Statistical Yearbook.This means that the family is the main body of fertility decision-making,and the choice of fertility is mainly the result of discussion within the family.Therefore,it is not accurate enough to analyze the second child fertility with provincial and municipal data.This also shows that China’s birth policy is indeed an inclusive birth policy,that is,returning the reproductive rights to families.The research idea’s are as follows:Firstly,the background,significance and framework of the writing are described,and the importance of studying fertility issues and how to study them are explained;After that,we sorted out the literatures about the macro and micro factors that affect fertility rate,considering that there is a certain correlation between the fertility cultures of East Asian countries,so we joined the literatures about the fertility policies of East Asian countries.Next,we will sort out the adjustment process of China’s birth policy,taking France,which has a successful policy adjustment,as an example to explain the necessity of China’s policy adjustment.Then analyze Becker’s theoretical model,and based on this model,expand the mathematical model to analyze and put forward the hypothesis;Carry out empirical analysis,through robustness,heterogeneity and mechanism analysis,confirm the reliability of the results and explain the influence links between factors;Finally,the conclusion is summarized and policy suggestions are put forward.The specific framework is as follows:The first part is the introduction,which describes the research background and significance,and sorts out the research framework and content;The second part sorts out the literature on macro and micro factors affecting fertility;The third part explains the reform and adjustment process of China’s birth policy in detail,and at the same time combs the birth policy and supporting policies of France,emphasizing the necessity and adjustment direction of China’s policy adjustment;The fourth part,based on Becker’s substitution model of children’s quantity and quality,expands the mathematical modeling,and puts forward three hypotheses of this paper.The fifth part carries out empirical analysis by bringing in specific data,confirms the credibility of the conclusion by various tests,and explains the influencing mechanism;The sixth part summarizes the theoretical and empirical conclusions,sorts out the existing policies and puts forward policy suggestions.Through literature review,theoretical model derivation and empirical analysis,the following conclusions can be drawn:(1)When a child is in the stage of infant and compulsory education,there is a positive correlation between the age of the first child and the birth of the second child on the premise that other factors remain the same.(2)When the family has already given birth to a boy,if other family factors and policy factors do not change,the probability of the family choosing to give birth to a second child is lower than that of the family where the first child is a girl,and the promotion effect of increasing the age of the first child on giving birth to a second child is weakened.(3)Under the premise that other factors remain the same,the higher the education level,the weaker the promotion effect of increasing the age of the first child on the birth of the second child;For families in cities and towns,increasing the age of the first child has a weaker effect on the probability of having a second child than for rural families.The possible marginal contributions of this paper are as follows:(1)On the basis of the original mathematical model,it is proved by the model deduction that there may be cases where the different age of one child affects the raising cost and then the fertility decision.(2)Through the analysis of the empirical part,we can explain to some extent the present situation that the relaxation of the birth policy has not achieved the expected results,and put forward some targeted policy suggestions.