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Study On China's Sex Ratio At Birth Since One-child Policy

Posted on:2012-06-26Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:Y C ZhaoFull Text:PDF
GTID:1117330368984012Subject:Western economics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
The sixth national census work was nearing completion. The relevant population data were to be released, in which the data showed that the imbalance to sex ratio at birth had not been effective mitigation. Since the one-child policy in the 1980s was launched, the sex ratio at birth had climbed to a high state of around 120 (normal median is 105). Serious deviation from the normal level of sex ratio had caused widespread concern in academic circles, many scholars researched the sex ratio imbalance and its effects, and made fruitful results. However, what had been achieved, the vast majority were from the demographic point of view, rarely from the perspective of economics to analyze the issue.This paper used quantitative analysis tools and modern economic theory, from the aspect of history and the current situation to investigate the reason of imbalance of sex ratio at birth, and give empirical analysis on marriage and divorce, the rise in crime phenomena caused by imbalance of sex ratio at birth. Crucial researches included the following aspects:Investigate the reason of the imbalance of sex ratio at birth. "Raising children to old age" hypothesis revealed that when parents determining the number of boys they wanted, they would compared their own earnings of taking care and savings, and reached the best only when the both were equal. Social security had a partial equilibrium impact on the fertility rate of boys, and played an alternative role to boys. Social security affected the boys fertility decision-making by the way of consuming and care. That is, higher the social security spending was, the more the elderly would receive from the government funded consuming and care, the desire of boy fertility would be lower.It researched on the relationship between the one-child policy and the sex ratio at birth. The paper had found that before the implementation of the one-child policy, the sex ratio at birth did not show significant imbalances and regional differences. After the implementation of the one-child policy, the sex ratio at birth showed differences not only in different regions controlled by different fertility policies, but also different nations and sub-parity of sex ratio at birth. The empirical analysis under the framework of multiple linear regression model proved that fertility decline significantly affected the sex ratio at birth at the level of 10% significance. The fertility rate had reverse correlation with the sex ratio at birth.It studied the sex ratio imbalance at birth in the marriage market, especially the relationship among sex ratio and marriage and divorce. The paper used the panel data between 2000 to 2009 and 21 provinces, autonomous regions, using the province fixed effects and time fixed effects model, to research the affect of sex ratio at birth on crude divorce rate, men in marriage rates, women in the marriage rate, divorce rate and women divorce rate with the proportion of the population over the other as a control variable. The results showed that higher sex ratio caused higher divorce rate, divorced men were less likely to find heterosexual couples, but the statistical relationship was not reliable.The research on the impact of sex ratio on crime rate, under the fixed effect model and province fixed effects model, scientifically analyzed the impact of the imbalance of sex ratio at birth to crime rate, with the control variables of labor productivity, junior high school enrollment rate, inter-provincial migration, welfare expenditures, the registered unemployment rate, etc, using 594 provincial-level panel data. Time fixed effects model showed that the sex ratio at birth had a positive relation with crime rate. The changes of the registered urban unemployment rate, migration rate and labor productivity had no significant impact on crime. The income gap between urban and rural areas, public security expenditures had a significant positive correlation to crime, while welfare spending and the junior high school enrollment rate were the opposite.
Keywords/Search Tags:imbalance of sex ratio at birth, the one-child policy, raising children for old age, marriage market, crime rate, fixed effect model
PDF Full Text Request
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